Consumers should brace for a sharp increase in pump prices this week, with diesel expected to rise by P12 to P13 per liter and gasoline by as much as P2 per liter, as tensions in the Middle East continue to disrupt global oil markets, an industry source said.
“MOPS [Mean of Platts Singapore] price on gasoline has actually softened, and the negative week-on-week difference points to a potential rollback,” the source told Manila Standard. “However, it may be wiped out once the premium and freight components are factored in.”
Data from the Department of Energy (DOE) showed that, as of March 24 to 30, diesel prices in the National Capital Region ranged from P105 to P140.20 per liter. Gasoline was priced between P84 and P111.10 per liter, while kerosene sold for P140 to P166.79 per liter.
Amid the expected price increases, the government is moving to secure additional fuel supply. Energy Secretary Sharon Garin said more than 1 million barrels of diesel, ordered by the state-run Philippine National Oil Co. (PNOC), are set for delivery in April.
“Delivery has started this week, and more to come in April,” Garin said in a Facebook post.
The DOE has authorized PNOC to procure up to two million barrels of buffer fuel in response to the ongoing crisis. So far, PNOC has secured 165.7 million liters of fuel, with additional deliveries scheduled throughout April, according to Garin.
Initial shipments totaling about 22.6 million liters of diesel, equivalent to roughly 142,000 barrels, sourced from Japan are being stored at Seaoil facilities in Mabini, Batangas, and Bangar, La Union.
Meanwhile, oil refiner Petron Corp. said it may consider purchasing additional Russian crude oil if the Middle East crisis persists, after already procuring 2.48 million barrels to sustain operations through June.
“The corporation wishes to transparently disclose that, if the current crisis persists and alternative crude sources remain unavailable or insufficient, the corporation may again be compelled to consider purchases of Russian crude oil to augment the national fuel supply,” Petron and its parent firm San Miguel Corp. said in separate disclosures to the Philippine Dealing and Exchange Corp.
Petron said any additional procurement would be coordinated with the government to ensure energy security.
Acting Executive Secretary Ralph Recto said coordinated efforts between the government and private sector, along with ongoing oil diplomacy, are helping cushion the impact of global supply disruptions.
“The oil diplomacy ably conducted by energy officials led by Secretary Sharon Garin has resulted in the firm order of 1.04 million barrels of diesel, with the first batch arriving this week. From Indonesia also comes the ironclad guarantee of a steady supply of coal,” Recto said.
He added that the expected activation of new wells in the Malampaya gas field by the fourth quarter would further strengthen the country’s energy position.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. earlier announced the successful drilling and testing of a new gas well under Malampaya, which is expected to boost domestic supply, reduce electricity costs and extend the life of the gas field.
Recto also cited support from the private sector, including commitments by oil firms to secure both traditional and alternative fuel sources.
Also, budget carrier Cebu Pacific said it has secured sufficient jet fuel to sustain its domestic and international airline operations until June.
“The airline has secured sufficient jet fuel to support all scheduled domestic and international flights until June 2026. CEB is working closely with suppliers and industry partners to ensure continued fuel availability in the months ahead and will continue to take proactive measures to maintain stable and sustainable operations,” the airline said.
The assurance comes amid volatility in global oil prices due to the Middle East conflict.
President Marcos earlier warned that grounding aircraft due to jet fuel shortages remains a “distinct possibility,” noting that some countries have limited refueling services, forcing Philippine carriers to carry enough fuel for round trips.
The Civil Aeronautics Board (CAB) has already increased the fuel surcharge for domestic and international flights. For April 1 to 15, the surcharge will be set at Level 8, up from the current Level 4.
House Minority Leader Marcelino “Nonoy” Libanan urged PNOC to invest in critical coastal petroleum storage facilities to build a strategic national fuel reserve.
“The oil crisis caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran clearly underscores the urgent need for the government, through PNOC, to establish its own emergency fuel reserves,” Libanan said.
“We need a government-managed buffer stock of key petroleum products—particularly diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel—that can be rapidly deployed during times of crisis,” he added.
Libanan proposed the construction of storage facilities in the Visayas and Mindanao to ensure more balanced fuel distribution nationwide.
As a model, Libanan cited the Subic Bay facility of Philippine Coastal Storage and Pipeline Corp., which has a capacity of 6.3 million barrels, or about one billion liters, and serves much of Luzon.
Garin visited the Mabini site last week to witness the arrival of the first shipment and attended the ceremonial unloading of the fuel.
“This has been three weeks in the making,” Garin said. “Considering this has never been done, we had to take some decisive and immediate actions to make sure the country has enough fuel, above all else.”
The deliveries form part of the DOE’s Emergency Energy Security Program, with private sector partners providing storage for government-procured fuel. Seaoil said it is supporting the initiative as part of its commitment to strengthening the country’s fuel supply readiness.
Petron noted that it secured the 2.48 million barrels following the government’s call to safeguard fuel stability, later formalized through Executive Order No. 110 declaring a state of national energy emergency.
Petron emphasized that sourcing from Russia was not part of its “business-as-usual” strategy and was undertaken only after exhausting other viable options.
On Feb. 28, the same day the Middle East war started, Petron said it was informed that a 2-million-barrel shipment could not safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy closed the vital shipping lane.
A second 2-million-barrel shipment was canceled on March 7 due to similar risks in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz.
“Considering that the corporation has a 30 percent market share of the Philippine fuel supply and operates the only oil refinery in the Philippines, the unforeseen military campaign on Iran and the subsequent effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz pose an imminent threat to the country’s fuel supply security,” Petron said.
The company operates the country’s sole refinery in Bataan with a capacity of 180,000 barrels per day. It also noted that about 98 percent of the Philippines’ crude imports typically come from the Middle East.
Petron warned that a refinery shutdown could trigger nationwide shortages, price spikes, panic buying and broader economic disruption.
In securing the Russian supply, the company coordinated with the DOE and the Department of Finance.
San Miguel Corp. chairman Ramon S. Ang, meanwhile, renewed his offer to sell Petron back to the government, as some lawmakers push for state control of the country’s only refinery during the energy emergency.
Recto said the government would expand fuel discount programs covering around 250,000 public transport drivers. Assistance will also be extended to farmers and fishermen to help prevent fuel-driven increases in food prices.
“To ensure that fuel price spikes will not trigger high food inflation, farmers and fishermen, who are users of motorized equipment, will receive assistance soon,” he said.
The government has already allocated an additional P50 million for regional support and continued subsidies for the agriculture sector.
On energy conservation, Recto said the government is implementing stricter efficiency measures, including spot checks on electricity use in public offices and tighter fuel controls on government vehicles, except those used for public safety and health services.
“The shift to econ mode extends to our hosting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) leaders’ summit this year,” Recto said.
“We have pared down activities to the most urgent. We have trimmed down costs across the board. Pomp and pageantry will now give way to problem solving.”
