“Analysts are gearing up for the final battle. 2026 is ‘now or never’”
In a rare confluence of events, today and tomorrow, most Orientals will be celebrating the entry of the Fire Horse, symbol of the Lunar New Year, while our Muslim brothers will begin the holy month of Ramadan.
Catholics the day after will mark the start of Lent on Ash Wednesday, Feb. 18. The confluence of these events makes the year quite exciting, or so the astrologers and feng shui experts tell us.
The economy will not provide good news. The rice market is tightening, just as oil pricing remains volatile. These would lead to further inflation, especially after the second half. Meanwhile, consumption which sank even during the holidays will remain in the doldrums.
In politics, the period will be marked by the histrionics of impeaching Vice-President Sara Duterte. Those who are desperate to prevent another Duterte from occupying Malacanang come 2028 will be hell bent on impeaching her. If they can get 16 senators to convict her, the door would open for wannabe’s of all types, colors and persuasion.
The other day, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, after meeting with her coalition leaders, some of whom were part of the Ocho Derecho of 2019, announced she is available for higher office, meaning the presidency or perhaps the vice presidency. Alin ba talaga, Ate?
Risa’s float, which was likely blessed by pinklawan patroness, Naga Mayor Leni Robredo, is intended to see if Senora Risa’s numbers will move from the cellars as to make her a viable candidate for the plum post, whether alone among the remnants of the “pink wave,” or in a wishful coalition with the administration of Marcos Junior.
If the float fails to fly, then the pinklawan tribes, blessed by some bishops, will “clamor” for Robredo to try her luck once more. And so they dream of getting the BbM-LAM support, better secretly than open.
Everyone and their political “analysts” are looking for the “One,” that is, the one who can beat current frontrunner Inday Sara of the solid Bis-Min vote, even if it means partnering with the nemeses of Ninoy and Cory.
Sacre bleu! How will the true-blue “yellows” position themselves in the sinister plan of the “pinks?”
Mindanao plus the Bisaya-speaking Visayans comprise 34 percent of the national vote. That is about 9 percent more than voters in the rest of Luzon — Ilocanos, Pampangos, Tagalogs and Bicolanos together, excepting Mega-Manila which is populated by multi-ethnicities who make up their minds on who to vote for towards the last innings, the so-called “independent voters” or “llamadistas”, who go for the winner as pronounced by the final surveys.
I classify nearby provinces with multi-ethnic origins in Rizal, Cavite, half of Laguna, half of Bulacan as Mega-Manila, among the biggest provinces by voting population. That is around 15 percent.
Let’s proceed with the raw math:
On the assumption that Inday Sara in 2028 is able to preserve the 34 percent Bis-Min voters, she will have a built-in advantage over any moist-eyed national figure dreaming to be president.
To match that, the opposing candidate will need to consolidate Balance Luzon. That means Regions 1, 2, CAR, half of Regions 3 and 4, Regions 4-B and 5, plus Panay and half of NIR, along with the Waray-speaking provinces. That would give him or her 33 percent, making it even steven.
Look around us. Is there anyone?
Now, if the remaining BbM loyalists plus the pinklawans and the divided leftist groups cannot consolidate their support towards only “One” challenger, Inday Sara should easily win. If the survey numbers by April 2026 show that Bis-Min is intact, then she will get a big chunk of the Mega-Manila vote. Game over.
But will it be a one-on-one fight, which moist-eyed Johnvic Remulla says is his condition for running? Based on previous experiences since the 1987 Constitution took effect, one-on-one is not likely.
Then again, the endorsement value of being the BbM-LAM candidate is likely to be a GMA 2010 repeat, which means subtraction, not addition.
Recall how GMA-proclaimed candidate Gibo Teodoro fared, and how this writer described Manny Villar as the Villarroyo candidate in 2010?
Will Risa, Leni, Bam, Kiko or whoever, even Leila want to be labeled the Marcoleni candidate? And will the noisy re-affirmists support a rejectionist candidate? Perish the thought.
So the final recourse for both the pinklawans who dream of a Vico in 2034, and an FM-LAM pining for Sandro in the political horizon, would be to “kill” Sara this 2026.
Which is why their analysts are gearing up for the final battle. 2026 is “now or never.”
(to be continued)
