“But acquittal is not a consummation to be countenanced by Malacanang”
It seems quite predictable that the trial of Vice-President Inday Sara Duterte will be tossed to the senators of the 20th Congress to adjudicate.
Neither the senators nor the Supreme Court will be pressured by the manufactured clamor from various quarters including the clerics who intend to gather a million signatures (bumenta na ‘yan!) to convene before June 2.
So the 64-dollar question by the time the elections will have “gifted” us with a new or recycled set of more of the same plus new misfits will be whether the vice-president will be convicted and disqualified to run for public office in perpetuum.
Truth is, it would have been better if the HoR impeached her in December, and the trial was started before the campaign period. She could have counted on four sure votes: Robinhood, Bong Go, Bato and Imee Marcos.
Plus the re-electionists, namely Cayetano, Tolentino, Lapid and Revilla who would need the huge Mindanao plus Bisaya vote, where the Dutertes, despite demolition efforts, still hold popular sway.
That’s eight votes, and since Senadora Cynthia wants to bequeath her seat to daughter Camille who needs the Duterte loyalist votes, you have nine; 10 to include her son Mark. Enough to acquit.
There’s no use speculating on how the Estrada siblings or the other remaining senators would vote. They would be icing on Sara’s cake.
But now, the VP’s fate is dependent on two factors: the result of the May elections and the resolve of President Marcos Junior to rid himself of her unwanted presence in the corridors of power.
Senators are self-interest politicians first and foremost. They will vote according to the shifting winds of public opinion and/or the inducements of Malacanang and its cohorts. Blended together, it is a heady cocktail.
So by late August or September, maybe October this year, we would witness either conviction or acquittal.
If acquitted, remember that what can’t kill can make one stronger.
If convicted, the next question will be who will replace her in the Numero Dos position.
Under the Constitution, the president can choose any member of Congress who meets the prescribed qualifications for the presidency or vice-presidency: natural-born Filipino, at least 40 years of age, and knows how to read and write.
There is an important consideration for the current occupant of the palace beside the not-so-stinking river Pasig (thanks to San Miguel’s Ramon Ang), and that is, someone trusted who is non-threatening and with little if any ambition to run for president in 2028.
Gloria Macapagal Arroyo chose Sen. Tito Guingona in 2001 after the fall of Erap. Already advanced in age and with little popularity, Tito fit the bill to a T. Like Gerald Ford was to Nixon.
So who is President Marcos Junior likely to choose?
My predictions: not anyone from the Senate. These 24 republics cannot hide their ambition, be it an SP Chiz, an Estrada, a Tulfo, a Cayetano, a Legarda, a Villanueva or even a Villar.
Once given the Numero Dos regalo, they will have a platform from which to ascend further, limiting whatever plans the president may have beyond his term .
So if it is a congressman, would he choose the current Speaker, a first cousin? He is too important to whip congressmen in line. But there is a cousin-in-law.
He is not likely to be publicly happy about this prospect, and I am not making this prediction as if I could in any way influence the current powers in Malacanang.
Think Toby Tiangco, the gentleman from the lone district of Navotas City.
He is the current campaign manager for the Alyansa ticket, an assignment given to one fully trusted. He is a relative by affinity, married to a Romualdez. He is low-key and well-respected by his peers for level-headedness and has served his constituents well both as mayor and congressman.
And he did not vote to impeach Sara, nor participated in the inquisition that preceded the impeachment. In 2016, when presidential candidate VP Binay was sinking in the surveys, Toby did not abandon ship.
Some rumors have been floating around that Tiangco could be the next Speaker, which is a possibility if the vice-president is acquitted by the Senate in order to somehow douse cold water on the political heat thereafter.
But acquittal is not a consummation to be countenanced by Malacanang.
The genie has left the bottle in the House, and to let go will threaten Casas Marcos y Romualdez as well as their loyalists, for a stronger Inday Sara is not likely to forgive nor forget.