“Poll survey firms need to reestablish their relevance in predicting future elections if they want to continue operating”
WITH the midterm election winners proclaimed, the next course of events should be for the victors to buckle down to work.
As we are witnessing, however, this seems highly unlikely. Instead, the political protagonists are now preparing for the next phase of the political fight which is the impeachment trial of the Vice President.
Judging from the recent pronouncements from the Duterte camp, it looks like the Dutertes are itching for a fight. Reason perhaps they view their side as the clear winners in elections and are therefore feeling confident preparing for the trial.
Based on the outcome of the Senate elections, they got more of their candidates in than what was predicted by most surveys. The Senate race ended up with a distribution of 5-5-2.
Five for the administration, five for the Duterte camp and two from the so-called pinks belonging to the Liberal camp led by former Vice President Leni Robredo who is now the newly elected Mayor of Naga City.
The new Senate composition will now be more complicated in the sense that prior predictions and assumptions just before the elections no longer apply.
We cannot simply assume for instance that party affiliation is the determining factor on how the 24 so-called “republics” will be voting in the impeachment trial.
These incoming senators may have behaved like loyal team players when campaigning, but experience has shown that, once elected, they act according to their own interests.
As most analysts are saying, conviction has now become difficult. This will depend on the horse trading now going on.
For one, the pinks that now number three have one common position with the senators of the administration and that is their opposition to the Dutertes.
A lot may also depend on how the new Senate will be constituted.
Will there be a change in leadership? The next few weeks should tell us that.
Unfortunately, with all these going on, tackling our current national problems will now take a back seat.
Legislations on how to improve the lives of Filipinos and our continuing problem with our giant neighbor, China, with regard to WPS will have to wait.
In an unexpected turn of events, however, PBBM in an interview a few days ago surprisingly offered an olive branch to all political opponents to sit down with him to see if some kind of an agreement can be reached for the benefit of the people they serve.
As he said in that interview, the people are tired of politics. All that they want he said is for elected officials to prioritize the people.
But with the Vice President saying she is hoping for a bloodbath during the impeachment hearing, it is doubtful whether the Duterte camp would even care.
They are riding high and smelling blood and cannot seem to wait for 2028.
They sure are in a hurry.
Even the sister of the President who is allied with the Dutertes gave an interview thanking FPRRD and the Vice President for winning a Senate seat which was weird.
It is, therefore, highly unlikely that there would be any kind of modus vivendi between the two sides anytime soon.
Still, PBBM can try to persuade the other minor parties that seem to have unexpectedly performed very well in the elections to agree to some kind of an arrangement with the administration.
What seems to be the most likely political scenario that we will be seeing, however, would be a lot of more infighting because this early, preparations for the 2028 national elections has unbelievably already started.
This brings us to the role of polling companies that conduct surveys in future elections.
They are one of the biggest losers in the elections with their credibility badly tarnished and we still have not heard anything from them.
Were they dead wrong in all their predictions or did they think there was some kind of Hocus Pocus that went on?
This is because the results did not even come close to their predictions.
They need to reestablish their relevance in predicting future elections if they want to continue operating.
It would be nice to hear from them.