“Marcos vs. Duterte and the battle for 2028”
Once united under the “UniTeam” banner, the Marcos and Duterte political clans are now teetering on the edge of a fierce rivalry that threatens to redefine Philippine politics. The latest OCTA survey indicates a seismic shift: while the Marcoses are gaining momentum, the Dutertes are witnessing a gradual decline in influence. As the 2025 midterms approach and the 2028 presidential race looms on the horizon, these former allies are headed for a dramatic confrontation that could alter the course of the nation’s history.
The Marcos and Duterte families have long dominated the political landscape of the Philippines. Ferdinand Marcos Sr. ruled from 1965 to 1986, leaving a legacy marked by martial law, immense wealth, and a complex mix of nostalgia and trauma. Meanwhile, Rodrigo Duterte’s presidency (2016–2022) ushered in a new era of strongman politics, characterized by populist rhetoric and a ruthless war on drugs. Both figures have etched themselves into the nation’s psyche: Marcos Sr. symbolizes authoritarian control, while Duterte embodies a fierce, uncompromising enforcement of order.
In the aftermath of Duterte’s term, Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s landslide victory in 2022 signaled the Marcos family’s return to power, initially bolstered by an alliance with Vice President Sara Duterte—Rodrigo’s daughter—under the “UniTeam” coalition. However, this partnership has begun to unravel, as the Dutertes challenge the Marcoses’ authority, their influence gradually waning.
The OCTA survey reveals a troubling trajectory for the Dutertes. Public support for President Marcos Jr. is climbing steadily; 38% of Filipinos now identify as pro-Marcos, a 2% increase from earlier this year. In stark contrast, pro-Duterte sentiment has dropped to 15%, reflecting a troubling decline throughout 2024. The rising tensions between these political titans suggest that a showdown is inevitable.
Mindanao remains the last bastion of Duterte influence, with 48% of respondents in the region identifying as pro-Duterte. Yet, the Marcoses are establishing dominance across the archipelago: Balanced Luzon (43%), Metro Manila (42%), and the Visayas (37%) are backing the president. Even in Mindanao, where Marcos’ support lags at 25%, a gradual erosion of the Duterte stronghold is evident. The political stage is thus primed for a dramatic clash—one that is crucial not only for the 2025 midterms but also for the anticipated 2028 presidential race.
What explains the shifting tides in favor of Marcos Jr.? His administration’s focus on economic recovery post-pandemic resonates with many Filipinos, alongside a renewed partnership with the U.S. that diverges from Duterte’s China-centric approach. Additionally, Marcos has successfully captured the attention of Class E voters, a vital demographic, with 40% identifying as pro-Marcos. The narrative of restoring order and progress—crafted for a younger electorate largely unfamiliar with the darker legacies of his father’s dictatorship—gains traction daily.
Meanwhile, Duterte’s legacy is unraveling. The brutal drug war, once celebrated, has become a liability amid growing public backlash and international scrutiny. Vice President Sara Duterte’s resignation from the Marcos-led cabinet earlier this year has strained their alliance further, eroding the family’s political relevance. While their influence remains robust in Mindanao, the Duterte name is fading in national conversations, with support plummeting to negligible levels in NCR (6%) and Balanced Luzon (3%).
The stage is set for the 2025 midterm elections, a litmus test for both camps. A strong performance from Marcos-backed candidates could solidify his power and pave the way for a smooth succession in 2028. Conversely, a failure by the Dutertes to reassert themselves could render them politically obsolete—a fate no dynasty embraces lightly.
However, a high percentage of independent voters (26%) presents both a challenge and an opportunity. Many disillusioned by the excesses of both dynasties could tip the balance. The opposition, albeit weak with only 7% support, may seek to court these independents, complicating the political landscape.
For the Marcoses, the strategy must include a concerted effort to penetrate Mindanao, neutralizing the southern stronghold of the Dutertes. Strengthening ties with Class E voters and engaging independents could also seal a decisive electoral victory. For the Dutertes, retaining their influence in Mindanao is paramount. A rebranding away from Rodrigo Duterte’s contentious policies toward a focus on governance and economic growth may be necessary, along with forging strategic alliances in a fragmented political landscape.
As the OCTA survey suggests a rising Marcos dynasty and a declining Duterte presence, the unpredictable nature of Philippine politics looms large. A sudden scandal, economic downturn, or geopolitical crisis could drastically alter public sentiment.
With the 2025 elections fast approaching, every move carries weight. The stakes are immense—not just for political legacies but for the nation’s future. What unfolds in the coming years will be a contest of power, identity, and survival, where the echoes of history and fleeting alliances shape the Philippines’ path forward. The impending clash between the Marcoses and the Dutertes is not merely a struggle for power but a battle for the nation’s soul. Will the Marcoses secure their legacy, or can the Dutertes rise again to challenge the status quo? The decisions made in the coming years will resonate profoundly, charting a course for the Philippines that could last generations.
