Three low-pressure areas are likely to develop in the Pacific Ocean between May 25 and May 31, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).
One of the three LPAs may enter the Philippine area of responsibility, although the weather bureau said the chance of any of them developing into a tropical depression remains low. Pagasa added that forecasts may still change in the coming days.
Hot, dry, and humid weather conditions will continue to prevail over Luzon and the Visayas. Pagasa said San Ildefonso, Bulacan may record a peak heat index of 46°C on Thursday.
A heat index of 44°C may also be experienced in Aparri, Cagayan and Dipolog City, Zamboanga del Norte. Several other areas, including Dagupan City, Tuguegarao City, Roxas City, Tacloban City, and Davao City, may experience a heat index of 43°C.
Meanwhile, Pagasa projected a “very strong” or “super” El Niño episode coinciding with the southwest monsoon from June to August, warning that the combined effects could trigger potentially strong typhoons.
Pagasa forecasts a 92-percent probability that El Niño and the southwest monsoon will occur simultaneously. Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Ana Liza Solis said heavier rainfall events may occur due to an enhanced southwest monsoon as easterlies weaken and shift into westerlies.
Solis said typhoons may recurve between June and August and pull the southwest monsoon, resulting in either strong winds or heavy rainfall. She added that a very strong El Niño may bring prolonged dry conditions that could peak between October and November and possibly lead to drought in many parts of the country.
Pagasa said its projection is based on climate models showing sea surface temperature warming of 3°C to 3.5°C. While a strong El Niño could mean fewer typhoons entering the Philippine area of responsibility, those that make landfall may be more destructive.
