The new low pressure area (LPA) that formed outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Sunday has now intensified into tropical storm “Marce” (international name: Yinxing), the state weather bureau said.
According to the latest 5 AM advisory from the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), “Marce” is moving west northwestward at 25 kilometers per hour with maximum sustained winds of 65 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness of up to 80 kilometers per hour.
Its center was last estimated at 935 km east of Eastern Visayas.
As the tropical storm moves northwestward within the PAR region, it may enhance the surge of northeasterly wind flow which may occur within the week.
The trough of the weather disturbance will bring rains over extreme Northern Luzon and the eastern section of Luzon beginning today or on Tuesday.
While no Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) is raised at the moment, TCWS No. 1 may be raised over portions of Cagayan by tomorrow, and the highest wind signal during the occurrence of “Marce” in TCWS No. 4.
“This tropical cyclone is expected to gradually intensify and may reach severe tropical storm category by tomorrow morning or afternoon. Furthermore, it may also reach typhoon category by tomorrow evening or Wednesday early morning. Rapid intensification is likely,” PAGASA warned.
The tropical storm will move west northwestward to northwestward until Wednesday morning before it begins to decelerate significantly while turning westward.
Meanwhile, from Wednesday afternoon until the end of the forecast period, “Marce” will move north northwestward to westward at a slow pace over the Philippine Sea east of Extreme Northern Luzon.
According to PAGASA, this forecasted movement has a high uncertainty since there are two possible scenarios: either the tropical cyclone will move more westward towards extreme Northern Luzon or mainland Luzon; or the tropical cyclone will move erratically over the Philippine Sea east of extreme Northern Luzon.
“A westward shift in track is likely within the next 24 hours due to the high-pressure area north of “Marce.”As such, the landfall scenario may change from Babuyan Islands down to Isabela area.”
