As Malacañang on Monday again rejected calls to declare Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan persona non grata, a local think tank and a maritime law expert refuted Beijing’s claim that escalating political rhetoric against its top diplomat could jeopardize millions of Filipino jobs, saying official data do not support it.
At a Palace briefing, Presidential Communications Office Undersecretary Claire Castro said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. had already dismissed proposals to replace the Chinese envoy.
“Unang-una, binanggit na po ng Pangulo noong tinanong tayo mismo ang isyu tungkol sa pagde-declare ng persona non grata. Ang sabi po ng Pangulo diyan, ‘No, hindi po kinakailangang palitan,’” Castro said, referring to the President’s earlier remarks.
(First of all, the President already mentioned the issue of declaring [someone] persona non grata when we ourselves were asked about it. The President said, ‘No, there is no need to change that.’)
Castro said tensions between Manila and Beijing should not be driven by one side alone and stressed the need for mutual effort in maintaining stable relations.
“Ang pag-i-escalate ng tensyon sa pagitan po ng China at Pilipinas, hindi po ito dapat na nagmumula sa isang bansa (The escalation of tension between China and the Philippines should not originate from just one country),” she said.
Friendly discussion and healthy dialogue must come from both countries and that mutual respect is essential in addressing bilateral concerns, Castro added.
The Stratbase Institute also disputed the Chinese Embassy’s assertion that strained ties would “cost millions of jobs,” citing figures from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.
The think tank said foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows from China from January to November 2025 totaled $3.10 million, down 52.43 percent from $6.52 million in the same period in 2024.
Chinese inflows accounted for just 0.27 percent of total FDI received by the Philippines during the first 11 months of 2025, it added.
Maritime law expert Jay Batongbacal likewise criticized the embassy’s warning, describing it as a threat and a sign of failed diplomacy.
“Now that is a threat. And a failure of (their) diplomacy,” Batongbacal said in a Facebook post.
He also disputed the claim that “millions” of jobs were at stake, citing Department of Migrant Workers data showing there are about 165,000 overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) in Hong Kong, 28,800 in Macau, and 12,250 in mainland China.
“These are not insignificant, but they are not ‘millions,’” he said.
The director of the Institute for Maritime Affairs & Law of the Sea, Batongbacal added that while the possibility of job losses should not be taken lightly, the impact would not be one-sided.
“If they are forced to go back home, they will leave tens of thousands of upper-income Chinese families without minders, caregivers, teachers, cooks, and other domestic help, as well as debilitate thousands of businesses and institutions with professional and highly-skilled mid-level management personnel,” he said.
Batongbacal characterized the Chinese message as: “Be friendly, or else!”
The Chinese Embassy had cautioned that heightened rhetoric and calls for Jing’s removal could affect economic ties and employment linked to Philippine-China relations.
But Stratbase, citing BSP data, said that in 2024, China made up only 0.55 percent of total net FDI inflows, continuing what it described as a “steady decline” from 12.04 percent in 2019 to just over 1 percent in 2023 before falling further in 2024.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed Chinese investment pledges in 2025 reached P10.25 billion, equivalent to 3.76 percent of the P272.58 billion in total approved investment commitments.
Chinese pledges surged during the administration of former president Rodrigo Duterte, rising from P2.33 billion in 2017 to P50.69 billion in 2018 and peaking at P88.67 billion, or 22.7 percent of total pledges, in 2019.
They dropped to P15.59 billion in 2020 amid the COVID-19 pandemic and have remained relatively low since, the institute said.
Stratbase also cited structural trade imbalances, noting that while China remains one of the Philippines’ top trading partners, the relationship is heavily skewed toward imports.
It said the imbalance, particularly following Duterte’s 2019 pivot toward Beijing, heightened dependence on foreign goods, increased exposure to supply chain disruptions, and put pressure on the country’s balance of payments.
“Taken together, official government data show that China’s contribution to Philippine investment inflows is limited, while trade relations remain structurally imbalanced. Claims that diplomatic strain would automatically lead to catastrophic job losses are therefore exaggerated and not supported by empirical evidence,” the institute said.
On another front, retired Supreme Court senior associate justice Antonio Carpio said it is legally impossible for him to be charged with treason by Senator Rodante Marcoleta over a 2011 ruling he penned involving Philippine territory.
“Every first year law student knows that treason cannot be committed during peacetime. The crime of treason can be committed only if the Philippines is at war,” Carpio said, citing Article 114 of the Revised Penal Code.
He added that charging him would require amending the law, repealing constitutional provisions prohibiting ex post facto laws and incorporating general principles of international law into domestic law, and withdrawing from the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
Marcoleta had questioned the Supreme Court decision in the case of Magallona v. Ermita, saying it minimized Philippine territory.
Carpio said he has accepted the offer of the Philippine Bar Association to host a neutral public debate between him and Marcoleta, in what the group described as a move in the spirit of constructive engagement and democratic dialogue.
