Despite Beijing’s rapid expansion of its naval and coast guard fleets, China continues to display serious shortcomings in maritime strategy, a security analyst said Thursday.
Speaking in an interview with DZUP, Dr. Chester Cabalza noted that the August 11 collision between a Chinese warship and a China Coast Guard vessel in Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal) highlights Beijing’s lack of operational coordination and navigational precision.
“Even if China is expanding its naval fleet and coast guard armada, its maritime strategy remains weak. They cannot get their navigational precision right,” he said.
Cabalza added that China has yet to master interoperability and unified command in its maritime operations—capabilities the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) have been actively developing through simulations and joint exercises.
“I believe it’s not about the number of weapons or technology you have, but how you use them. At the end of the day, the real contest is in strategy—and Filipinos don’t easily lose in that regard,” he stressed.
Cabalza noted the Philippines has demonstrated resilience by strengthening its coast guard, adhering to international law—including the 2016 arbitral ruling that invalidated China’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea—and deepening security ties with allies such as the United States, Japan, and Australia.
“Our navy and coast guard are well-trained despite repeated provocations from China. We teach them about UNCLOS and international law,” he pointed out.
“They know that when you understand the conflict there, it’s like taunting — if you get upset, it provokes a reaction, and that creates a ripple effect,” Cabalza added.
