First of two parts
This is the future that awaits the world unless humanity takes dramatic steps to end a series of mushrooming environmental crises, finds a new report from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP).
The seventh edition of the Global Environment Outlook (GEO-7) offers a stark vision of the decades to come. But its authors say the worst forecasts can still be avoided if countries quickly take meaningful steps to address climate change, nature, land and biodiversity loss, and pollution and waste.
“With a whole-of-government, whole-of-society effort humanity can still turn the ship around,” says Maarten Kappelle, Chief of Service in UNEP’s Office of Science. “But if countries continue to drag their collective feet, billions of people will face an uncertain future, especially those in the developing world.”
GEO-7, the work of nearly 300 scientists, created a model of what the planet would look like in 2050 if nations continued to do three environmentally destructive things: pollute, pump out greenhouse gasses and destroy natural spaces. In the first of three stories about the report, here are some of the key findings of that modelling.
Planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions are expected to rise to 75 billion tons a year by 2050–a nearly 50 percent jump from today. This will destabilize the climate and lead to a surge in heatwaves, which are expected to affect nearly everyone on Earth–some 9.2 billion people–by 2050. Almost no corner of the planet will remain untouched by extreme heat.
By 2050, humans will be pulling 165 billion tons of raw materials from the Earth annually. This represents a more than 60 percent jump from 2020. GEO-7 says the extraction of all these metals, minerals and fossil fuels will destroy many natural spaces, worsening climate change and feeding biodiversity loss.
Climate change alone is expected to shave 4 percent off global gross domestic product annually by 2050. As temperatures rise and the crisis deepens, that number will rise to a staggering 20 percent by 2100. That would be just a little less than the contraction the United States of America suffered during the Great Depression of the 1920s and 1930s.
The downturn will be magnified by the effects of pollution and the disappearance of nature. The poor will suffer the most from this economic upheaval and the gap between them and the rich will continue to widen.
GEO-7 foresees a slight drop in air pollution by 2050. But because of increasing urbanization, the absolute number of people exposed to airborne pollutants will rise.
By 2050, 4.2 billion people will regularly inhale dangerous levels of one particularly problematic substance, PM 2.5. The report estimates that air-pollution-related deaths will cost the global economy US$18-25 trillion through 2060. (To be continued) UNEP News
