The International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.8 percent in 2027 following a downgrade in its 2025 and 2026 projections amid an infrastructure corruption scandal and climate shocks.
In its January 2026 World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said it expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.6 percent this year before expanding to 5.8 percent in 2027.
These figures represent a downward revision compared to the October 2025 forecast of 5.7 percent in 2026 and 6.0 percent for the following year.
“The downward revision in [gross domestic product] growth projections for 2026 and 2027 reflects the carryover impact from a downward revision in the IMF’s growth forecast for 2025—from 5.4 to 5.1 percent—and a slower pace of capital accumulation,” the IMF said.
It recently lowered its GDP growth projections to 5.1 percent in 2025 and 5.6 percent in 2026 after a sharper than expected economic slowdown in the third quarter.
The fund noted that economic growth in the next two years would be driven by robust consumption and higher investments, supported by monetary policy easing and policy initiatives for private investment.
Risks to the growth outlook remain tilted to the downside, the IMF said, citing external headwinds such as prolonged global trade uncertainty, geopolitical tensions and disruptive financial market corrections.
Domestic risks include extreme climate events and lower than expected reform momentum.
On the upside, accelerated implementation of structural and governance reforms can boost investment and foreign direct investment, increase fiscal multipliers and boost potential growth, the IMF said.
The economy grew 4.0 percent in the third quarter and 5.0 percent in the first three quarters of 2025 on infrastructure spending slowdown amid a controversy surrounding flood control projects.
