The Philippine economy is projected to expand by 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025, bringing the full-year average growth to 4.7 percent, an economist said on Tuesday.
HSBC ASEAN economist Aris Dacanay said the outlook reflects a continued drag from slower public infrastructure spending and spillover effects in consumption.
Latest data from the Department of Budget and Management showed that infrastructure spending fell by 40.1 percent in October amid a continuous decline in disbursements for the Department of Public Works and Highways following a flood control corruption scandal.
Dacanay said fourth-quarter growth could slip below 4 percent if infrastructure spending continues to drop at the rate recorded in October.
“There is a risk that if public infrastructure spending continues to dip by 40 percent in November and December, there is a risk that growth can go below 4 percent over the fourth quarter of 2025,” Dacanay told reporters in a media briefing.
Meanwhile, inflation rose to 1.8 percent in December, bringing the full-year inflation figure for 2025 to 1.7 percent.
Dacanay said inflation would remain below 3 percent for 2026 and 2027, giving the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas room for further monetary easing when deemed necessary.
Dacanay also expects the Philippine economy to grow by 5.2 percent in 2026 and 5.6 percent in 2027.
