Bans on vaping are perpetuating cigarette dependence and failing to reduce smoking rates globally, according to harm reduction experts and the latest Global State of Tobacco Harm Reduction (GSTHR) report.
Data suggest that 8 million deaths occur annually due to tobacco use, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where access to safer nicotine alternatives remains heavily restricted.
World Health Organization statistics show global tobacco consumption held steady at 1.25 billion users in 2022. This indicates limited progress since the 2005 adoption of the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. In countries such as China, Egypt, Jordan and Indonesia, male smoking rates remain above 45 percent, a trend advocates link to the prohibition of less harmful products.
The GSTHR report, funded by Global Action to End Smoking, found that integrating harm reduction with traditional tobacco control could prevent 14 million premature deaths by 2060. If 1 in 5 smokers switched to low-risk alternatives over the next 15 years, researchers estimate smoking-related fatalities could be halved by 2060.
University of Queensland National Centre for Youth Substance Abuse Research Emeritus Professor Wayne Hall reported that adult daily smoking in New Zealand fell by 10 percent annually between 2016 and 2023. This is double the 5 percent yearly decline recorded in Australia, where nicotine vapes require a prescription. Hall noted that the sharper decline in New Zealand mirrors higher vaping rates, with 9.7 percent of adults vaping daily compared to 3.5 percent in Australia.
Medical University of South Carolina Dr. Michael Cummings concluded that free-market access to lower-risk products in the United States, England and Sweden accelerates the decline of cigarette use. In the United Kingdom, smoking prevalence is projected to drop to 10.8 percent by 2025 from 24 percent in 2005, while Sweden has seen a 72 percent decrease in smoking among young adults over the last decade alongside a rise in nicotine pouch use.
Critics of restrictive policies, including Australia, Let’s Improve Vaping Education founder Pippa Starr, said that prohibition fosters massive black markets. In India, where vaping is banned, cardio-endocrine consultant Dr. Rohan Andrade Sequeira noted the struggle of 250 million tobacco users. He said that traditional nicotine replacement therapy has a global success rate of only 7 percent, leaving many patients trapped in behavioral patterns of tobacco use.
While some nations maintain strict bans to protect public health, the GSTHR data suggests that countries allowing regulated access to smoke-free products see more significant improvements in smoking prevalence.
VSML co-founder Kurt Yeo added that the lack of cessation support and the scale of illicit markets further hinder quitting efforts in many African nations.
