The Philippine government is set to release significantly lower export targets under the revised Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP), acknowledging that original projections are no longer attainable due to weaker global demand and persistent geopolitical tensions.
The updated figures, scheduled for launch on Dec.4, 2025 during the National Export Congress, reflect more realistic expectations compared to the initial projections, which were drafted coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The revised targets will be significantly lower—around half of the original numbers, according to Exports Marketing Bureau (EMB) director Bianca Sykimte.
Despite the downward recalibration, Sykimte said the Philippines remains on track to meet the revised goals for 2025. The country’s export performance is currently in line with the expectations of the revised plan.
Philippine Exporters Confederation (PhilExport) president Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. noted that the shift to the revised PEDP is sensible because there is “no way to meet the original targets.”
He said the country may close the year at around $113 billion in exports, and projects modest expansion for next year, citing a 7-percent growth target as “good enough,” although he believes a double-digit increase is unlikely.
Merchandise exports grew 14-percent from January to October. However, services exports saw a slight decline of less than 1 percentage point, primarily due to weaker transport services.
Shipments to the United States remain elevated as of October, having jumped by about 10 percent due to front-loading ahead of new US tariffs, although normalization is expected in the next few months.
The EMB official also noted the sustained strength in merchandise exports, with the Philippines averaging around $7.2 billion in the past five months, a figure historically above the usual $5 billion to $6 billion range.
Diversification is taking hold, with only China, Thailand and South Korea posting declines among the top 10 markets.
The European Union remains a key target for expansion in electronics coconut products and creative industries. Electronics and services are expected to remain the main drivers of growth, while agricultural exports such as coconut oil may see only mild gains due to tariff disadvantages versus competitors.
