THE Philippines could face steep price hikes and production losses across key agricultural commodities if global crises persist, according to Agriculture Undersecretary U-Nichols Manalo.
“We are closely monitoring the prices of our basic commodities, including fertilizers, and the supply of food and agricultural products relative to projected impacts,” Manalo said on Tuesday during a Senate committee hearing on the Proactive Response and Oversight for Timely and Effective Crisis Strategy (PROTECT).
In a worst-case scenario, lasting 180 days with major damage to Middle East oil infrastructure and oil prices at $200 per barrel, Manalo said retail prices of essential food items are expected to surge.
Chicken could jump from P200 to P324 per kilo, while pork, particularly kasim and liempo, will see sharp increases. Well-milled rice prices may rise by 49 percent, from P45 to P67 per kilo.
Fertilizers, crucial for crop production, are also projected to spike. Granular urea prices could climb by P288 per 50-kilogram bag, and drilled urea by P237. If the worst-case scenario persists, the cost of production at the farmgate level could increase by P1 to P1.50 per kilo, further straining farmers’ costs.
Rice production is similarly threatened, as first-semester output is projected to fall by 7,169 metric tons (MT), followed by a possible second-semester decline of 104,075 MT, from the annual target of 19.87 million MT.
With a yearly target of 19.87 million metric tons (MT), first-semester output could fall by 7,169 MT, while second-semester production could decrease by 104,075 MT.
Corn, a key feed ingredient, may drop by 156,636 MT from the projected annual output of 3.2 million MT.
Vegetables are not spared as lowland “pinakbet” crops may decline by 81,230 metric tons and highland vegetables by 22,287 metric tons. Onions, sensitive to storage and fuel costs, are also expected to face supply pressures.
Livestock is also at risk, given the projection that two to three percent of smallholder farmers could go bankrupt or shift to other ventures if the crisis worsens.
In fisheries, prolonged high oil prices could severely affect motorized fishing operations, raising fuel costs to P1,000 per day per fisher.
Manalo underscored the urgency of monitoring both domestic supply and global developments, noting that current inventories, such as the National Food Authority’s nine-day rice stock, may not be sufficient under sustained pressure.
