Philippine rice and corn production is expected to decline in marketing year 2025/26 as severe typhoon damage and difficult post-harvest conditions outweigh government support measures, the Foreign Agricultural Service Manila of the US Department of Agriculture said in a report.
The USDA marketing year is a 12-month period that tracks agricultural commodities, starting after harvest like Sept. 1 to Aug. 31 for corn or Aug. 1 to July 31 for rice.
The agency noted in its Dec. 22 report that rice output would likely drop due to lower palay harvests in the fourth quarter of 2025. Despite high fertilizer costs, farmers have continued planting thanks to expanded government subsidies and programs designed to stabilize farmgate prices.
While production dips, rice consumption is projected to remain strong because of population growth and stable retail prices.
Rice imports are estimated to decrease following the extension of an import ban from Sept. 1 to Dec. 31. This combination of lower domestic production and reduced imports is expected to pull down ending stocks.
To mitigate the impact on growers, the Philippine government introduced a floor price for palay and expanded national storage capacity.
Corn production is also forecast to fall because of weather disruptions in key producing regions during the third quarter of 2025.
Although the second quarter saw a strong harvest, the gains from improved yields were offset by typhoon-related losses. Total corn consumption is nevertheless expected to rise, driven by demand from the broiler, layer, pet food and recovering swine industries.
Ending corn stocks are projected to decline as tight supplies and lower global prices discourage feed millers from holding large inventories. No major policy changes were reported for the corn sector.
FAS Manila expects total wheat consumption to increase in 2025/26. Higher demand for milling wheat is fueled by bread, pasta and biscuit consumption, though rising ingredient costs may temper this growth. Feed wheat use is also set to rise as the livestock and pet food sectors expand, even as aquaculture demand declines.
The Philippines remains entirely dependent on wheat imports, which are expected to increase to meet the rising demand. Stocks are projected to grow as manufacturers build inventories.
Overall, the Philippine food supply is estimated to grow by 1.8 percent in the 2025/26 marketing year, while the energy supply is projected to increase by 4.7 percent. Animal protein production is also expected to expand across most major livestock sectors through 2026.
