Meteorologists from the University of the Philippines have analyzed 45 years of Philippine tropical cyclone data, revealing insights into how storms behave as they approach and make landfall in the country, one of the world’s most cyclone-prone regions.
Drs. Bernard Alan Racoma and Gerry Bagtasa of the University of the Philippines Diliman College of Science’s Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology examined 372 landfalling tropical cyclones from 1979 to 2024, identifying patterns that highlight operational challenges and the need for improved preparedness.
“Storms that hit the northern part of the country tend to be stronger but slower-moving. Southern storms tend to be faster and accelerate more rapidly,” Racoma said in an interview.
“This has implications for the types of hazards these storms may bring.”
Fast-moving and rapidly accelerating storms in the Visayas and Mindanao give communities limited time to prepare, while stronger but slower-moving storms affecting Luzon increase the risk of prolonged flooding and landslides.
Although tropical cyclones often remain inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility for several days, the meteorologists found that their direct presence along Philippine coasts is brief, averaging only 21 hours before moving inland or away.
Racoma explained that the country’s long north-to-south orientation compared with its east-to-west width allows storms, which typically move from east to west, to cross more quickly. He added that cyclones also weaken over land because they lose access to warm ocean waters, their primary energy source.
The researchers emphasized that understanding both the timing and intensity of storms is critical to reducing disaster risk.
They urged communities to take all developing storms seriously and to closely monitor cyclones as they enter or form within the Philippine Area of Responsibility.
“Rapid intensification can occur within 24 hours, and even weak storms can strengthen quickly. We should avoid waiting for a storm to intensify before preparing,” Racoma said, noting that about half of cyclones entering the area make landfall.
The study, titled “Characteristics and Near-Landfall Behavior of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Philippines (1979–2024),” was published in Tropical Cyclone Research and Review.
The research was supported by the UP Diliman Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research and Development and the Department of Science and Technology–Philippine Council for Industry, Energy, and Emerging Technology Research and Development.
Editor’s Note: This is an updated article. Originally posted with the headline: “UP meteorologists analyze storm behavior to mitigate impact”
