The Department of Agriculture (DA) plans to cap rice imports in 2026 at 3.6 million to 3.8 million metric tons (MT) as it banks on near-record domestic production to stabilize prices and protect farmers’ incomes.
Agriculture secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel Jr. said the proposed import volume for next year would not exceed 3.8 million MT unless major disruptions, such as calamities, significantly reduce local supply.
He noted that the government is tightening volume management following lessons from past oversupply that dragged down palay prices.
“Our targeted importation for next year is only 3.6 to 3.8 million tons. We will determine the volume of monthly shipments as we go along. Remember that importation will be limited or no shipment at all during the months of harvest,” Tiu Laurel said, adding that imports in the first semester will carry a 20 percent tariff as agreed by cabinet secretaries in the presence of the President.
The DA’s import planning is anchored on projected palay output of at least 19.8 million MT in 2026, with the department still hoping to reach around 20.3 million to 20.4 million MT, which may surpass previous harvest records if achieved.
Tiu Laurel said the projection assumes improved irrigation coverage and generally favorable weather conditions, noting that a mild La Niña could support rice production due to increased water availability. The Philippines’ record harvest stands at 20.06 million MT, recorded in 2023.
However, the DA is factoring in production risks, including damage to around 37,000 hectares of rice land in Region 1 that are currently unable to be planted, as well as disruptions linked to illegal quarrying that affected irrigation systems. These factors could reduce output by about 120,000 MT in the first half of the year.
To shield farmers during the harvest season, the DA will strictly limit import volumes in the early months of the year. Rice imports arriving in January were capped at 150,000 MT, while the volume in February, March, and April will be likewise reduced, with higher volumes to be considered only after the main harvest.
Importation will continue throughout the year, but volumes will vary depending on the harvest cycle. The DA plans to implement a volume management system for the first six months of 2026, while a new framework for the second half of the year will take into account how much rice importers source from local farmers.
Tiu Laurel said the approach is based on voluntary cooperation among stakeholders and is intended to keep rice affordable for consumers while supporting farmgate prices. He added that the government is considering institutionalizing such powers under proposed amendments to the Rice Tariffication Law.
Tiu Laurel said tariffs alone are less effective than controlling import volumes, noting that tighter supply management has helped keep palay prices between P18 and P23 per kilo, with some industry reports citing prices as high as P25.
The DA will continue to review import volumes and tariff levels every four months, with adjustments to be made depending on global prices, exchange confirming market conditions.
