Philippine exports are expected to finish the year on a strong note, sustaining positive momentum through November and December, although the government revised down its medium-term growth targets due to softer global demand and geopolitical risks.
Export Marketing Bureau (EMB) director Bianca Sykimte said Thursday that full-year export growth is likely to be positive, supported by consistently strong monthly figures since mid-2025.
“Even if we only expect the historical average, it’s going to be a positive growth for Philippine exports. We’re able to bank on the good performance in the last five months,” Sykimte said on the sidelines of the National Exporters’ Week.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) showed that from June to October, monthly export receipts averaged $7.2 billion, a significant jump from the previous norm of $5 billion to $6 billion, providing confidence for continued upward trends in the final two months of the year.
The Export Development Council (EDC) has adopted more conservative export goals under the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) 2023–2028, following a midterm assessment that reflected softer global demand and uneven performance across key industries.
Under the updated outlook, exports are now projected at $110.8 billion in 2025, $116.1 billion in 2026, $123.3 billion in 2027 and $132.8 billion in 2028.
These figures are lower than the earlier Philippine Development Plan benchmarks of $113.4 billion, $120.2 billion, $127.4 billion and $135.1 billion for the same period. The revision foresees annual growth of 3.6 percent to 7.7 percent through 2028.
The EDC said the recalibrated figures “reflect tempered export growth based on global demand and recent performance of key sectors.”
Despite the adjustments, the Philippines has sustained its recovery, surpassing the $100-billion export mark in the first year of the PEDP and posting record export levels since 2022.
Sykimte said the EMB and EDC now utilize a range-based target, with the original Philippine Development Plan figures serving as the upper band.
The lower band reflects the need for flexibility amid global uncertainties including political tensions, potential US tariff adjustments, disruptions in shipping routes and earlier challenges such as the Panama Canal drought and Red Sea security risks.
“In the first two years, we really missed the export targets, so we have to recalibrate. The best time to recalibrate our targets is when we are about to grow,” Sykimte said.
