S&P Global Ratings expects the Philippines gross domestic product (GDP) per capita to sustain its growth over the medium term, reaching $5,800 by 2028.
“Our medium-term GDP growth projection is about 6.2 percent over 2026 to 2028. Driving this will be strong public and private consumption, coupled with sustained investments. GDP per capita could rise to approximately US$5,800 by 2028,” the debt watcher said in its latest reform that affirmed the country’s long-term “BBB+” and short-term “A-2” sovereign investment-grade credit ratings with a positive outlook.
It estimated the nominal GDP of the Philippines at P26.446 trillion ($461.6 billion) in 2024 and expects it to rise to P28.318 trillion ($493.3 billion) by 2025, P30.77 trillion ($541 billion) by 2026, P33.808 trillion ($603 billion) by 2027 and P37.161 trillion ($679 billion) by 2028.
As a result, the Philippines’ per capita GDP is expected to rise from $4,100 in 2024 to $4,300 by 2025, $4,700 by 2026, $5,200 by 2027 and $5,800 by 2028.
Meanwhile, the BSP welcomed S&P Global’s affirmation of sovereign investment-grade credit ratings with a positive outlook.
S&P said its decision reflects the country’s above-average economic growth potential, strong external position, policy continuity and reforms that improve the investment climate.
“S&P’s rating decision confirms our view of the favorable long-term economic growth prospects,” said BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr.
S&P noted the BSP has a track record of keeping inflation low, and a history of independence.
While the gross domestic product growth eased to 4.0 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from 5.5 percent in Q2, the rating agency stressed the slowdown is temporary. S&P projects Philippine economic growth at 4.8 percent n 2025 but expects a quick rebound to 5.7 percent in 2026 and 6.5 percent in both 2027 and 2028.
S&P forecasts long-term growth prospects for the country to remain sound and above that of countries with similar ratings. It further noted policy reforms that support foreign direct investments.
As of the third quarter of 2025, the Philippines remains one of Asia’s fastest-growing economies with average Q1-Q3 growth of 5.0%, behind Vietnam (7.9%), tied with Indonesia (5.0%), and ahead of Malaysia (4.7%), Singapore (4.3%), and Thailand (2.4%).
Remolona said the country remains well-positioned against external risks, supported by USD 110.2 billion in gross international reserves as of end-October 2025—enough to cover 7.4 months of imports, more than twice the International Monetary Fund’s adequacy benchmark.
An investment-grade credit rating enables the government to borrow at lower interest rates, freeing up resources for essential services and infrastructure. It likewise helps businesses access more affordable financing, supporting expansion and job creation.
A positive outlook points to a possible rating upgrade within 24 months, which would further lower borrowing costs and boost investor confidence.
