The Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP), operator of the nation’s electricity spot market, expects average rates across the three grids to remain below P4 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) for the rest of 2025.
IEMOP president Robinson Descanzo said in a speech at the 2nd Philippine Future Energy and Grid 2025 conference that ample supply and low demand are expected to keep average prices at the Wholesale Electricity Spot Market (WESM) low for the remainder of the year.
For the Luzon grid, the anticipated average price is estimated at P3.57 per kWh. Descanzo noted that average Luzon supply is projected at 15,019 megawatts (MW), with average demand expected to be 9,972 MW for the rest of 2025.
The estimated average price for electricity in the Visayas grid is P3.71 per kWh. The grid is forecasted to have an average supply of 2,637 MW and an average demand of 2,064 MW.
Meanwhile, Mindanao’s average electricity price is estimated at P3.52 per kWh, suggesting relatively lower prices compared to Luzon and Visayas, primarily due to Mindanao’s surplus capacity, which often allows it to export power to Visayas.
The grid’s outlook remains promising, with an expected average supply of 4,055 MW and an average demand of 2,101 MW.
Descanzo said Luzon is expected to retain sufficient capacity to meet its 2030 demand levels due to significant committed additions.
By 2030, assuming all committed and auctioned capacities are delivered and with an average system demand of 18,165 MW, the renewable energy (RE) share is projected to increase to 36.56 percent, surpassing the national target of 35 percent.
In 2025, the current RE share at the system-wide level is at 25.68 percent. With the rise in variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration from 6.29 percent to 26.06 percent, the share of baseload generation is expected to decline from 76.36 percent to 64.91 percent.
Descanzo cautioned that supply-demand conditions may become tighter by 2030, leading to increased reliance on peaking plants, particularly in Mindanao, which currently experiences high excess supply.
The Visayas grid will also need an additional 300 MW of baseload capacity or improved performance from existing coal units to satisfy local demand and maintain baseload adequacy.
He said the combined existing, committed and auctioned capacities will be insufficient to meet the projected demand of 30,309 MW by 2040.
To meet these future energy requirements, the grid will need substantial additional capacity, including baseload plants with capacity factors of around 70 percent—totaling 4,050 MW in Luzon, 1,500 MW in Visayas and 1,450 MW in Mindanao—and VRE additions with capacity factors of 21 to 30 percent, amounting to 15,600 MW, 4,000 MW, and 3,850 MW for Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao, respectively.
