The magnitude 6.9 earthquake that struck the central Philippines, off the coast of Bogo City, Cebu, at around 10 pm on Sept. 30 has killed dozens, displaced thousands, and caused hundreds more to go missing. It has also damaged numerous buildings and structures, and has caused sinkholes in various parts of the area.
As of press time, there have also been thousands of aftershocks registered from the same epicenter.
Other disasters are occurring at the same time. On Oct. 1, Taal Volcano erupted twice, even as the area remained on Alert Level 1. And then, on the morning of Oct. 5, a magnitude 5 quake rocked Ilocos Norte. Numerous typhoons have pummelled various parts of the archipelago. And when combined with the utter failure of flood control projects made substandard by massive corruption, these weather patterns, occurring in greater intensity and frequency as a result of global warming, are a fixture in the nation’s life.
As Filipinons grapple with an ominous mix of natural and man-made disasters, there is talk again of the likelihood of the Big One – a higher-magnitude quake occurring in Metro Manila and adjacent places, causing even greater damage and casualties.
The so-called Big One, a movement in the Marikina Valley fault system extending from Bulacan to Laguna, is a scenario painted by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2024. The study projected a casualty count of 33,500 casualties in the capital region, with 113,600 more injured. Nearby provinces could sustain a death toll of 48,000.
These days there is talk about reviewing the 24-year-old JICA study. According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology Director Teresito Bacolcol, the situation may have changed as more buildings have been constructed and the population has grown. The new study will take around two years, he said.
Updating the study and responding to current demands of those affected by the recent tremor are daunting tasks. These are not merely government mandates that must be heeded. Failure to perform will not only slow down the bureaucracy or cause inconvenience to a small group of stakeholders. Actual lives are at stake – and there is no greater consequence than people dying, losing loved ones, losing all they have worked for, and being uprooted from their homes.
Then again, these big repercussions are not confined to earthquakes, as Filipinos know too well. We have had decades, even centuries, to acknowledge that our country is vulnerable to disasters. There is thus no more excuse for the government to fall short in preparing for them – and this includes ensuring that the infrastructure needed to protect the people when tragedies strike.
