Consumers can expect another mixed oil price movement next week with diesel prices increasing by as much as P1 per liter and kerosene by around P0.25 per liter.
Gasoline is expected to have a rollback or increase of around P0.10 per liter.
Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau said several factors are expected to affect the movement of prices this week, including the US imposing new sanctions on Iran for its non-compliance to its commitments under the 2015 nuclear deal.
Romero said world prices were also affected by concerns about global supply glut as OPEC+ is set to increase its crude production levels.
“Traders are cautious ahead of the OPEC+ October 5 meeting with prices reacting sharply to headlines rather than fundamentals,” she said.
Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said the forecast is based on this week’s Mean of Platts Singapore and foreign exchange average (first 4 days) versus last week’s full week average.
“Crude oil prices have declined sharply this week due to concerns about a market glut from the prospect of higher OPEC+ production output,” he said.
Bellas said that despite the bearish sentiment, Asian diesel market fundamentals remain supported due to shifting of regional flows to the West to meet the demands from the US and Europe as the ongoing autumn refinery maintenance, peak harvest season demand, and Russia’s partial diesel export ban have raised the risk of supply shortfalls.
“While Asian gasoline price benchmarks have retreated from record highs as inventories climbed and seasonal demand softens, fundamentals remain supported due to expectations of supply tightness,” he said.
“A series of refinery outages and spot demand from Indonesia have continued to support the Asian market, and the nationwide gasoline export ban imposed by Russia has added to the bullish sentiment,” Bellas said.
He said the weaker peso against the US dollar is also expected to “further push the potential movement of domestic pump prices next week to the upside.”
“MOPS prices are seen to track today’s crude oil movement, which is expected to ease down further. But worries that the potential tighter sanctions that could further disrupt Russian crude exports and the stockpiling demand from China could limit the further downside to oil prices,” Bellas said.
On Sept. 30, 2025, , most oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P0.20 for gasoline and price increase of P0.90 per liter for diesel and kerosene. Year-to-date total net increase stands at P14.70 per liter for gasoline, P17.05 per liter for diesel and P5.45 per liter for kerosene.
