Consumers can expect a mixed movement in the prices of petroleum products by next week based on the 4-day trading in Mean of Platts Singapore, the benchmark trading of oil importers.
Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau said the forecast is based on heightened geopolitical risks brought by the US action threatening to impose tariffs on European nations which will not “immediately” stop buying Russian energy.
“This makes the oil market bullish. But additional global oil supplies are seen after Iraq resumes oil exports via pipeline to Turkey. Final adjustments will be determined after the Friday MOPS trading and the inclusion of all related expenses and premiums,” Romero said.
Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas said based on this week’s MOPS and foreign exchange average (first four days) versus last week’s full week average, diesel will have an increase of P0.30 to P0.50 per liter and gasoline by P0.50 to P0.70 per liter.
“Oil prices have rebounded significantly in the last two trading sessions, with diesel tracking its movement, due to worries of a tightening market, compounded by concerns that Ukraine’s intensified drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure and renewed Western efforts to curb Russian oil and gas flows could disrupt supplies,” he said.
Bellas said further supporting oil prices is Russia’s recent announcement of a partial ban on diesel exports and extension of an existing ban on gasoline exports.
“Diesel is also supported by stabilizing industrial activity in Europe and increasing demand for harvest season in the US. Worries that the ongoing supply risks could disrupt product flows and affect supply in Asia have also lent support to diesel price,” he said.
Meanwhile, easing gasoline prices reflected the ample supply situation in Asia, with supply likely to outpace demand following the release of China’s third batch of clean export quota volumes.
“Rising stockpile inventories of gasoline in the region have also pressured prices as exports are expected to be capped as the summer driving season draws to a close,” Bellas said.
He said the depreciation of the peso against the US dollar this week resulted in a larger potential price increase on diesel and reduced rollback on gasoline.
On Sept. 23, 2025, the oil firms increased the price of gasoline and kerosene by P1 per liter and diesel by P0.80 per liter.
