The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Monday raised a La Niña alert.
Based on the state weather bureau’s climate monitoring and analyses, there is a 70 percent chance of La Niña forming in October until December, with it likely to persist until February 2026.
“La Niña (cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation) is characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. When conditions are favorable for the development of La Niña within the next two months and the probability is 70 percent or more, a La Niña Alert is issued,” PAGASA said.
It cited the further cooling of the sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
La Niña is associated with an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences towards the end of the year.
“These could be brought about by several rain-bearing weather systems such as monsoons, severe thunderstorms, low pressure areas, easterlies, shearlines, and intertropical convergence zone that can trigger adverse impacts, including floods and landslides in vulnerable areas,” PAGASA said.
Up to 15 tropical cyclones could enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) from this month to February next year.
