CONSUMERS can expect next week a big time oil price hike of as much as P1.50 per liter to reflect the movement of prices in the world oil market.
Meanwhile, year-on-year headline inflation rose from 0.9 percent in July to 1.5 percent in August, still within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) forecast range of 1.0 to 1.8 percent for the month.
The oil firms are expected to increase domestic pump prices by P1.30 to P1.50 per liter for diesel and P1 to P1.20 per liter for gasoline. Kerosene is also expected to go up by around P0.80 per liter.
This will be the third consecutive of week of oil price hikes for diesel and kerosene and the fourth week for gasoline.
Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said the oil prices have increased this week on worries of supply disruptions after Russian oil flows dropped significantly as the country’s oil processing facilities suffered serious damage from Ukrainian attacks.
“Worries of possible tighter supply ahead due to fresh US sanctions that targeted Iran’s oil revenue stream and initial market expectations that no change in production output from OPEC+ have also supported prices,” he said.
He added that while traders have initially expected that there will be no change in the production output from OPEC+, the rising prospect that the producer group will consider another hike in production targets in October has pressured prices due to concerns of oversupply.
“Doubts on the strength of US demand have also weighed on prices. Refined fuel supply fundamentals remain sensitive to trade disruptions including any further escalation in geopolitical tensions,” he said.
Rodela Romero, director of the Department of Energy’s Oil Industry Management Bureau, said oil prices rose $1 after US imposes sanctions targeting Iran’s oil revenue stream.
She said other factors that contributed to the high world oil prices is the decision of Saudi Aramco and Iraq’s state oil marketer SOMO to halt exports to India’s refinery, now under EU sanctions, and intensifying airstrikes in Russia and Ukraine.
In Aug. 2025, the oil firms also raised the price of diesel by P1 per liter and gasoline and kerosene by P0.70 per liter, respectively.
Meanwhile, inflation was recorded at an average rate of 1.7 percent for the first eight months of the year, still below the government’s inflation target range of two to four percent.
Food inflation rose as weather disturbances adversely affected the supply of key food commodities, particularly vegetables and fish. By contrast, rice prices declined further due to lower international rice prices, sufficient domestic supply, and government measures to stabilize prices.
Non-food inflation also picked up in August, as domestic fuel prices at the pump increased relative to the previous month.
On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, headline inflation was at 0.5 percent in August. Core inflation accelerated from 2.3 percent in July to 2.7 percent in August.
The BSP sees average inflation falling below the target in 2025 before returning to the target range in 2026 and 2027.
Going forward, the BSP will continue to monitor emerging risks to inflation and will determine the appropriate response of monetary policy to safeguard price stability conducive to sustainable economic growth and employment.
