The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) on Tuesday announced that it is closely monitoring the possibility of La Niña and its effects on the local climate as early as September.
In a press statement, the state weather bureau said that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle’s neutral phase is most likely to persist until the August-September-October season this year.
“However, model forecasts suggest an increasing probability of short-lived La Niña conditions as early as the September-October-November season until the October-November-December season,” PAGASA posted on Tuesday afternoon.
La Niña is ENSO’s cool phase, characterized by unusually cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
It is likewise historically associated with an above-average number of tropical cyclone occurrences toward the end of the year and above-normal rainfall conditions in most parts of the Philippines. These can trigger adverse impacts, including floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.
PAGASA issues a La Niña Watch when conditions are favorable for the phase’s development within the next six months, and the probability is 55 percent or more.
