Share prices are expected to trade sideways with an upward bias this shortened trading week, buoyed by positive signals from the US Federal Reserve.
Financial markets are closed Monday in observance of National Heroes Day.
“We expect the local bourse to trade sideways with a slight upward bias, as investors anticipate the BSP to sustain its easing cycle with a 25-basis point policy rate cut,” said Peter Louise Garnace, an equity research analyst at Philstocks Financial Inc.
Garnace added that investors would also be digesting Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech for signals on policy direction, which could influence global risk appetite. Analysts said Powell’s remarks during the speech raised hopes of a US rate cut next month. US shares also rose over the weekend because of Powell’s dovish comments.
The market may also weigh a slew of economic data releases, including Philippine trade data and the US Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, Garnace said.
Last week, the Philippine Stock Exchange index declined 0.54 percent to close at 6,281.58, while the broader all shares index slipped 0.36 percent to 3,737.58.
Average daily value traded declined to P6.49 billion from the previous week’s average of P10.03 billion. Foreign investors also became net sellers, with outflows reaching P1.53 billion versus the previous week’s inflows of P1.86 billion.
Wall Street shares rallied Friday as US Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell left the door open to cutting interest rates, which also sent the dollar dropping against the euro and other major currencies.
Investors had been eagerly waiting for Powell’s speech all week, hoping to hear hints that the Fed would cut rates at its next meeting in September to spur economic growth.
New York’s three main indexes surged following his remarks, rebounding after a tech sell-off this week.
European stock markets also got a bump in afternoon deals, though the gains were limited by the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the German economy, which shrank in the second quarter. With AFP
In his speech at the annual symposium of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell warned that risks of higher inflation and a weakening jobs market meant a “challenging situation.”
“Downside risks to employment are rising,” Powell said, adding that the effects of Trump’s tariffs on consumer prices “are now clearly visible.”
“With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” he said.
Powell has come under intense public pressure this year from Trump to lower rates.
But the independent central bank has kept benchmark interest rates steady at a range of between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent since its last reduction in December.
In keeping rates unchanged, policymakers cited resilience in the labor market as they monitored the effects of Trump’s wide-ranging tariffs on the world’s biggest economy.
“The market was pricing in roughly a 75 percent chance of a rate cut in September,” said Bret Kenwell, an investment analyst at eToro.
But the odds according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool exceeded 80 percent late Friday.
Kenwell noted however that “rising inflation is still a risk and may prevent the Fed from moving as quickly as they’d like, but the committee is unlikely to stand by idly if we see further weakness in the jobs market.”
The dollar fell against currencies such as the euro, pound and yen, as lower returns make the greenback less appealing to foreign investors.
Oil prices inched up after rising more than one percent on Thursday, as investors weighed the potential for a peace deal in Ukraine more than three years after Russia’s invasion.
Observers have been speculating over how a possible lifting of sanctions on Russia, a major oil producer, would impact markets.
Trump on Thursday set a two-week timeframe for assessing peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, following days of high-stakes diplomacy that saw him meet with Russian and Ukrainian counterparts in person, as well as several European leaders.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, however, told NBC television Friday there was “no meeting planned” between the Russian and Ukrainian presidents.
In corporate news, Deutsche Post shares fell 1.1 percent after the German postal service said it would restrict package deliveries to the United States due to Trump’s tariffs.
France’s La Poste, owned by the French state, announced similar restrictions.
