ECONOMISTS from the University of Asia and the Pacific (UA&P) expect the Philippine economy to rebound in the second half of 2025, with its gross domestic product (GDP) projected to grow 5.8 percent in the third quarter.
The UA&P experts said low inflation and employment gains in the second quarter of 2025 helped the economy expand 5.5 percent year-on-year, hitting the low-end of the government’s revised 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent target for the year.
Gross national income (GNI) surged by 8.2 percent year-on-year, while the country’s net primary income expanded by 32.8 percent.
Robust domestic demand growth also helped accelerate economic growth, despite its 4.8 percent year-on-year growth being slower than the recorded expansion in the first quarter.
“Strong household consumption and some government projects supported the quarter’s overall print. On the other hand, ongoing global uncertainty dragged investment growth but also induced front-loaded export growth. The April-May election ban on public works also hampered Q2 growth,” the UA&P economists said in a report.
Unemployment rate dropped to 3.7 percent in June 2025 as the number of employed Filipinos increased to 50.475 million.
The industry sector led the generation of new jobs with 301,000 new workers on a monthly basis, while both the agricultural and services sector experienced a decline in employment.
The Department of Economy, Planning and Development (DEPDev) earlier unveiled a recalibrated development roadmap that projects the country will achieve upper-middle-income status soon and its gross national income (GNI) per capita will exceed $5,000 by 2026.
The updated plan includes several key economic targets, including GDP growth of 5.5 percent to 6.5 percent in 2025, and 6 percent to 7 percent from 2026 to 2028.
It expects the gross national income (GNI) per capita to reach $4,814 to $4,920 by 2025; $5,124 to $5,210 by 2026; $5,452 to $5,589 by 2027; and $5,882 to $6,081 by 2028.
The ultimate goal is to lead the Philippines toward becoming an upper-middle-income country with inclusive growth that benefits all regions, not just major urban centers, DEPDev said in a statement.
