The Philippine government’s revenue collections are on track to reach P7 trillion by 2030, led by aggressive tax collection efforts and new fiscal reforms, Finance Secretary Ralph Recto said Monday.
Speaking at a budget briefing in Congress, Recto said total revenues are projected to grow by an average of 10.2 percent annually from 2025 to 2028, hitting nearly P6 trillion by the end of President Marcos’s term.
“By 2030, our total revenues will hit P7 trillion,” he said, adding that this requires the Bureau of Internal Revenue (BIR) and the Bureau of Customs (BOC) “to work harder and boost efficiency at a faster pace.”
Recto said the projections include additional revenues from recently enacted laws, such as the VAT on digital services and the Capital Markets Efficiency Promotion Act.
He cited the government’s strong revenue performance, with collections growing by an average of 13.8 percent annually over the last three years. In 2024, the government achieved a revenue effort of 16.7 percent, the highest in 27 years.
“We are also on course to meet our fiscal program for the year, having already achieved half of our targets,” Recto said.
“As of mid-year, our tax collections continued to post double-digit growth, totaling P2.03 trillion. This is 10.7 percent higher than last year,” he said.
The finance chief said this robust performance has placed the Philippines among Asia’s top countries for revenue-to-GDP ratios. The government also expects additional revenues from the soon-to-be-enacted Rationalization of the Mining Fiscal Regime Act and is exploring a possible General Tax Amnesty this year.
Recto said with higher revenue collections and improved spending management, the government’s fiscal deficit is projected to drop from a pandemic high of 8.6 percent in 2021 to 5.5 percent in 2025 and to about 4 percent by 2028. It is expected to fall further to around 3 percent by 2030.
“Crucial to this is ensuring that we prevent wasteful expenditures,” he said.
Recto cited the government’s support for President Marcos’s directive to “closely scrutinize the national budget” and ensure that projects funded in the 2026 National Expenditure Program have the highest “multiplier effect.”
The government is allocating 5 percent to 6 percent of GDP for infrastructure spending, 4 percent for education and roughly 4 percent for health, agriculture and social welfare.
Recto said that if the government adheres to its Medium-Term Fiscal Program and maintains disciplined spending, the Philippine economy is projected to reach P42.6 trillion by 2030, while keeping the country’s debt at P24.7 trillion, equivalent to 58 percent of GDP.
He said the country’s debt metrics are improving and are “relatively lower than that of most countries in Asia,” citing Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Indonesia and Thailand as examples with higher debt levels.
He said that for instance, Japan’s total debt is at P485.94 trillion; Singapore’s at P53.68 trillion; South Korea’s at P46.89 trillion; Indonesia’s at P31.37 trillion; and Thailand’s at P17.73 trillion.
