Domestic pump prices are forecast to have a mixed movement next week with gasoline increasing by up to P0.60 per liter while diesel will roll back up to P0.90 per liter and kerosene by P1 per liter.
This is based on the first four days of trading in the world oil market this week versus last week’s full week average and the movement of the peso versus the US dollar.
Department of Energy director for the Oil Industry Management Bureau Rodela Romero said among the factors that could affect the estimated price adjustments next week include easing trade tensions between US and China and weaker global demand outlook by the US Energy Information Administration.
“MOPS [Mean of Platts Singapore] prices have see-sawed during the first four trading days of the week, with diesel declining as demand appeared to be slowing down amid rising product availability, while gasoline remaining strong as the seasonal summer demand continue to rise,” Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said.
He said crude oil prices have weakened this week on the prospect of easing of sanctions on Russia should a ceasefire or peace deal happen during the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin.
“Bearish inventory and supply data, and worries of declining demand have also weighed on prices, with US crude and diesel inventories rising more than expected,” Bellas said.
“On the other hand, easing trade war concerns after the US and China extended a pause on higher tariffs, and demand optimism spurred by the prospect of a potential US interest rate cut in September, have put a floor on oil prices,” he said.
He said uncertainty of the US-Russia peace talks that could affect Russian oil exports continues to add a bullish risk premium, given that Russia and buyers of Russian oil could face more economic pressure should a deal does not happen.
On Aug. 12, 2025, most of the oil companies implemented a price decrease of P0.40 per liter for gasoline, P1 to P1.50 per liter for diesel and P1 to P1.30 per liter for kerosene.
Year-to-date total net increase remains at P10.80 per liter for gasoline and P12.75 per liter for diesel. Kerosene stands with total net increase of P2.65 per liter
