Power retailer Manila Electric Co (Meralco) said it revised its 2025 sales volume growth forecast to a range of 1 percent to-2 percent from an earlier projection of 4 percent to 4.5 percent, following a less than 1 percent sales increase in the first half of the year.
Meralco reported consolidated distribution energy sales of 27,091 gigawatt-hours (GWh) at the end of the first semester, a slight rise from 26,954 GWh in the same period last year.
“We’re revising our forecast given the current conditions,” said Meralco senior vice president and chief revenue officer Ferdinand Geluz.
Geluz attributed the downgrade to industry, weather and macroeconomic factors.
Geluz cited elevated vacancies in commercial real estate, a lingering effect of the exit of Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators (POGO), which continues to suppress demand in office and condominium spaces.
Cooler and wetter weather this year also softened consumption, especially compared to last year’s El Niño-driven spike, he said.
Geluz also noted intensifying macroeconomic pressures, with downgraded GDP forecasts, weak tourism and global uncertainties like Middle East tensions and US tariff risks all weighing on overall demand.
The company saw a modest 0.5-percent sales uptick in the first six months, influenced by cooler temperatures and a slowdown in demand compared to last year’s El Niño weather-driven base, when sales grew 9 percent.
“Our sales grew 1.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, but actually contracted in May and June,” he said.
“On top of this, there was a GDP growth forecast downgrade from 6 percent to 5.5 percent in April, driven by uncertainties from the US tariff policy,” he said.
Meralco chairman and chief executive Manuel Pangilinan said growth in the power generation business would help offset the decline in sales.
“Typically, the growth in the DU [distribution utility] is close to the growth of the real growth of GDP,” Pangilinan said. “These are challenging times. These are tough times.”
He said the economic slowdown also impacted the bill volume of Maynilad Water Services Inc., despite water being more critical than power.
“I think the economy is slowing down, and we’re getting affected by that,” he said.
Geluz said residential sales volume growth in the first half was tempered at 0.7 percent, a significant drop from almost 13 percent a year earlier.
“So quarter on quarter, Q1, residential grew almost 3 percent, but Q2 it was depleted by 91 percent, with May and June showing negative 3 percent on a month-on-month basis,” he said.
The commercial sector also saw marginal growth of just 0.3 percent, compared to nearly 10 percent last year. This was because “the expansion in retail and restaurants was countered by the impact of office vacancies due to POGO.”
Meralco’s total customer count reached 8.1 million in the first half, a 3-percdent increase from 7.9 million in the same period a year ago. The company forecasts consolidated core net income to reach P50 billion this year, up from P45.1 billion in 2024.
