The Philippines should build 7,000 classrooms every year for the next 15 years to address severe backlogs and prepare its education system for the future, according to a study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).
With each classroom expected to cost of P3 million, PIDS projected this would require P18 billion to P24 billion in funding for public school buildings.
During a live podcast on July 3 titled “Classroom Shortages and Teacher Quality: Kaya Bang Mag-Level Up ng Polisiya?” hosted by Professor Jose Cris Sotto at Centro Escolar University, PIDS education experts urged long-term, systemic solutions to the country’s decades-old classroom crisis.
“If education is something important to us as a nation, we should be able to put our heads together to address this issue,” said Dr. Michael Ralph Abrigo, PIDS senior research fellow and lead author of the study, “Low Fertility, Ageing Buildings and School Congestion in the Philippines.” The study was commissioned by the Second Congressional Commission on Education (EDCOM 2).
The PIDS study noted that while lower fertility rates and targeted infrastructure projects have reduced national congestion, overcrowding remains severe in key areas such as Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Region XII, and the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
In 2021, over 90 percent of students in Northern Manila elementary schools were in classes with 50 or more pupils. Southern Manila recorded 76.8 percent and Eastern Manila 60.1 percent. Nearby provinces like Rizal (66.0 percent) and Cavite (57.7 percent) showed similar strain.
The study projects a nationwide decline in school enrollment from 2040 to 2060 due to declining fertility.
“Per the PSA projections, if our Total Fertility Rate drops to around 1.7 by the 2050s, our population will start to decline… With fewer children entering school, we’ll need fewer classrooms and teachers,” Abrigo said.
However, this trend does not apply evenly. Regions like BARMM continue to see a rising school-age population, pushing local education systems beyond capacity.
Abrigo said infrastructure should be coupled with bold, scalable reforms.
“DepEd is not in the business of constructing buildings. Their mission is improving education, and classrooms are just one part of that,” he said.
He cited public-private partnerships, such as education vouchers offering private school alternatives, as a way to ease public school congestion. He also recommended flexible scheduling and shared space agreements for underutilized classrooms.
Abrigo called for greater national support for under-resourced local government units (LGUs), particularly those unable to utilize their Special Education Funds (SEF).
Effective reform, he said, requires transparent, data-driven planning and coordinated infrastructure deployment among government agencies.
“Currently, classroom construction procedures are lengthened by phased budgeting, site verification, bidding, and hazard assessment processes,” he noted.
He recommended a forward-looking master plan, updated regularly to identify locations with impending demand, ensuring classrooms are built ahead of enrollment surges. Abrigo also highlighted that these plans must consider local nuances, especially in disaster-prone regions, to reduce delays and wasted resources.
PIDS said a shrinking youth population offers a chance to boost per-capita income, but only if the country invests heavily in education.
The “demographic dividend” refers to the economic growth potential that arises when a country has more working-age people than dependents. However, this opportunity only pays off if the workforce is healthy, educated, and productively employed.
“The demographic dividend isn’t automatic — we must invest in human capital through education, health, and employment to ensure our future workforce is ready,” Abrigo said.
This means not just increasing education budgets but rethinking how the system is built and managed, Abrigo added.
“There should be very strategic project management. It’s not just about the budget per se,” he said.
