The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs) on Monday acknowledged the possibility of future destructive earthquakes, but denied the gloom and doom scenarios painted by some YouTube channels on the country’s subduction zones, particularly the Manila Trench.
Phivolcs director Teresito Bacolcol said movements along the trench may generate a maximum of magnitude-8.3 tremor and tsunamis as high as 3.5 meters from the Manila Bay, but there is no truth to observations that it is “about to rupture” soon, triggering a so-called “megathrust earthquake.”
A YouTube channel based in the United States recently published a video warning about the threats posed by the Manila Trench, claiming it had exhibited signs of stress capable of producing an earthquake between magnitude 8.8 and 9.3.
“It (powerful earthquake) can happen but we can’t tell when. The trench is an active one,” Bacolcol told the Manila Standard.
“We do not deny a possible quake occurrence, but it is not true that the magnitude would be that big, and that the trench’s whole stretch would move and is about to rupture,” he added.
Bacolcol said the state seismic agency along with the Office of the Civil Defense and the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) have an ongoing study on the Manila Trench.
The Phivolcs director described it as an oceanic trench 1,500 kilometers long located at the tip of southern Taiwan stretching up to Mindoro. Since this is a segmented trench, it would be impossible for the whole stretch to move simultaneously generating quakes between 8.8 to 9.3 in magnitude.
In a separate interview, Department of Science and Technology (DOST) Secretary Renato Solidum told the Standard they are constantly working with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) to prepare for extremely damaging earthquakes and tsunamis.
“The (Youtube) video shows the rupture of the whole length of the trench. We have various simulations considering segments of the Manila Trench moving and estimated possible heights and inundation in coastal areas are mapped and used for disaster preparedness planning,” he said.
Solidum said geological maps can be accessed via the HazardHunterPH app. “The Manila Trench is one of the several trenches bounding the Philippines and Phivolcs has prepared scenarios for other trenches,” he added.
Phivolcs as well as the US Geological Survey constantly remind the public that there is no reliable technology that can accurately predict the occurrence of earthquakes.
