The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI) said the ceasefire announcement by former US president Donald Trump in the Israel-Iran conflict is a positive development, but warned that the Philippines remains economically vulnerable should hostilities reignite.
“At the moment, the effect is hardly felt. But if the conflict escalates, even if we’re not directly involved and are geographically distant, we could still face significant economic, labor, and security challenges,” said PCCI president Enunina Mangio.
Mangio cited the country’s heavy reliance on imported oil as a key pressure point, noting that renewed tensions in the Middle East could push global oil prices higher, thereby worsening inflation.
“Higher oil prices directly translate to increased costs in transportation and production, which will ultimately burden Filipino consumers and businesses,” she said.
The PCCI also raised concerns over the safety of overseas Filipino workers (OFWs), particularly those stationed in the Gulf region, saying a full-blown conflict could force the Philippine government to undertake emergency repatriation.
“This doesn’t just endanger lives, but also threatens remittance flows and the livelihoods of thousands of families who depend on income from abroad,” Mangio said.
Potential supply chain disruptions were also flagged as a serious risk, especially if critical shipping routes like the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz are affected.
Mangio said any disruption in these lanes could delay the delivery or increase the cost of essential imports such as food, electronics and fuel.
“Global trade is highly interconnected. Even localized conflicts can trigger ripple effects across continents,” she said.
Mangio also warned of potential spillover effects on regional security, citing the need for Philippine policymakers and businesses to remain vigilant and prepare contingency plans.
“We welcome any development that can de-escalate tensions, but we must not be complacent,” she said.
