The government’s economic managers retained their 2023 gross domestic product growth target, but reduced the estimate for 2024.
“We have maintained our growth targets at 6.0 to 7.0 percent for 2023. Meanwhile, the growth target for 2024 has been narrowed to 6.5 to 7.5 percent from the previous range of 6.5 to 8.0 percent, while retaining the 6.5 to 8.0 percent growth assumption for 2025 to 2028,” the Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) said Friday after revisiting the medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, fiscal program and growth targets.
The DBCC noted that the Philippine economy grew by 5.5 percent in the first three quarters of the year, sustaining its position as one of the best-performing economies in the Asia-Pacific region.
“More importantly, the corresponding GDP per capita is above pre-pandemic levels. This growth momentum is expected to continue for the rest of the year and surpass that of our neighboring countries,” it said.
The DBCC also approved the revisions to several macroeconomic assumptions based on emerging data. It said the average inflation rate for 2023 is expected to settle at 6.0 percent and return to the target range of 2.0 percent to 4.0 percent in 2024 until 2028.
Meanwhile, the assumption for the Dubai crude oil price for 2023 was narrowed to $82 to $85 per barrel, considering the anticipated decline in global oil inventories.
This is projected to settle at $70 to $90 a barrel in 2024 and decrease to $65 to $85 in 2025 to 2028, as the latest futures prices and forecasts suggest falling global crude oil prices over the medium term.
The peso-dollar exchange rate assumptions were set at 55.50 to 56 against the US dollar for 2023. It is expected to reach 55 to 58 against the greenback from 2024 to 2028.
“The peso will continue to be supported by structural foreign exchange inflows, narrower current account deficit projections and ample foreign exchange reserves,” the DBCC said.