If and when Israel and Iran will ignite a widespread conflict in the Middle East, it will affect the global economy, including the Philippines
It was bound to happen and it did happen when a Chinese Coast Guard ship collided with Unaiza, an Armed Forces of the Philippines-contracted indigenous resupply boat.
During the same resupply mission, a Chinese militia vessel “bumped” into the Philippine Coast Guard patrol vessel that was heading to Ayungin (Second Thomas ) Shoal for a resupply mission, Santa Banana.
The incident occurred about 13.5 nautical miles east northeast of the BRP Sierra Madre which was intentionally grounded by the Philippine Navy with a platoon of marine soldiers to assert the Philippine claim to Ayungin Shoal within the Exclusive Economic Zone of the country west of the nearest town west of Palawan at the Spratly Islands.
The Ayungin Shoal has become a bone of contention between China and the Philippines at the West Philippine Sea.
China for its part claims Ayungin Shoal is part of its sovereignty and territory and in accordance with its Ten-Dash Line map the whole South Sea as part of its territory and sovereignty.
Before this incident, there had been occasions when Chinese Coast Guard ships and Chinese militia vessels tried to block Philippine Coast Guard ships and other contracted ships from what is called “routine rotation and resupply missions” (RE-RO) to the grounded World War II-era vintage ship for the benefit of its platoon of marine soldiers on duty.
There had been past occasions when Chinese Coast Guard vessels also tried to block these missions with the use of a military laser and another one with water cannons to stop resupply missions.
But, somehow the Philippine Coast Guard ships were able to avoid the actions of the CCG’s attempts to block and prevent the RO-RE.
This latest incident has been condemned by the United States, Canada and the European Union as a violation of international maritime laws and the United Nations Convention of the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The South China Sea is where trillions of dollars in trade pass through.
We can protest as we had done in the past for the latest action by China, but will it comply? My guess is that China will just ignore us.
Santa Banana, the Philippine government must have already filed hundreds of protests (I cannot count them) for all the incursions of China at the West Philippine Sea, but China simply chose to ignore us.
Some so-called WPS analysts and experts are now talking about our invoking the MDT or the Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 where it was stated that in case of attack by any country Washington can come to our defense.
But, what has been happening at the Ayungin Shoal or even at Bajo de Masinloc are attacks on Philippine sovereignty.
China claims it was just protecting its territorial sovereignty and the Panatag Shoal at Bajo de Masinloc and the Ayungin Shoal at the Spratlys are within its territorial sovereignty.
Legal action
After the filing of a diplomatic protest, the government is now thinking of filing a legal action on the latest incident of the Chinese Coast Guard vessel which involved a contracted Philippine boat in a near collision before the International Criminal Court or the UNCLOS, but initial reports about the incident are not enough.
The Office of the Solicitor General in cooperation with the Department of Foreign Affairs will still have to complete its investigation.
In any case, it does seem the government is taking a step forward to assert sovereignty of the Philippines. This matter, however, is now up to BBM to pursue it or not. It’s a very sensitive matter.
Other countries, like Japan, Australia, South Korea, Canada and the European Union and of course, the United States all support the Philippines, since it appears that China is getting more aggressive against the Philippines in the West Philippine Sea.
The latest incident together with the past incidents committed by China in the WPS are creating tensions, endangering peace and stability in the region.
Just how far will the Philippines go in its latest attempt to file a legal action on China is a matter of speculation, which BBM has to tread softly .
The Israeli-Hamas war
As expected, the Israeli-Hamas conflict is now spreading into southern Lebanon with the Israeli forces now attacking the well-known Iran Hezbollah.
Santa Banana, we also have a good number of OFWs in Lebanon, and now they are crying out to be repatriated.
I am no geopolitical expert but what I have been reading in the newspapers and seeing all over television are expansions of the Middle East conflict.
The Israeli–Hamas war could ignite a Middle East conflict with the long-standing war between Israel and Iran igniting the conflict.
I am not a doomsayer, but what I know about the Middle East, if and when Israel and Iran will ignite a widespread conflict in the Middle East, it will affect the global economy, including the Philippines.
Santa Banana, as if the Russia-Ukraine conflict is not enough to affect the prices of everything, which are soaring sky-high.
President Marcos Jr. will have another headache to deal with!
