The Department of Energy expects no power outages despite an expected decline in hydroelectric power due to the El Niño weather phenomenon.
“We do not have potential red alerts for the rest of the year,” Energy Undersecretary Rowena Guevara said.
Guevara said that based on the state weather bureau’s forecast, hydro power plants are expected to reduce output by 50 percent starting July and up to 70 percent by the end of the year.
She said there is a potential yellow alert on the third week of July and three weeks in August but no red alerts as a result of the lower hydro power output.
“We can run the more expensive diesel plants if actual demand exceeds the projected demand. So far, the actual demand is less than the projected demand,” the official said.
Guevara said the completion of three critical transmission projects by August are also expected to provide additional power supply so thereare no yellow alerts for that month.
These are the Hermosa-San Jose, Cebu-Negros-Panay Project 3 and Mindanao-Visayas Interconnection Projects.
Guevera said on Friday the Department of Energy is monitoring severalhydro power plants due to El Nino.
She said these are the 280 MW Angat, 720 MW Kalayaan, 345 MW Magat and 435 MW San Roque hydro facilities.
“We are monitoring their [water] level that will determine their capacity to generate hydroelectric power,” Guevara said.
She said DOE conducted a simulation, based on historical data and forecasts of El Niño on power generation where it was revealed that about 300 MW to 500 MW of hydro capacity will be affected.
Guevara said the entry of the Ilijan natural gas power plant will also address demand, estimated at 720 MW.
She also said that National Grid Corp. of the Philippines’ ancillary services providers will also provide additional capacity, if needed.
Also over the weekend, the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) said the El Niño phenomenon is unlikely to have a significant impact on inflation this year.
NEDA Undersecretary Rosemarie Edillon said the brunt of El Niño is expected at the beginning of 2024 so the preparations must already be started.
Edillon also assured the public that the government is taking measures to mitigate the negative effects of long dry spells, citing the reduction of water allocation for irrigation from Angat Dam in favor of residential use.
“The planting season has already concluded, eliminating the need for irrigation water at this point,” she said.
The National Water Resources Board earlier said it will reduce the allocation for the Metropolitan Waterworks and Sewerage System and the National Irrigation Administration to 48 cubic meters per second (CMS) and to 20 CMS, respectively, until the end of July if the water level in Angat Dam falls below its minimum operating level of 180 meters.
Angat Dam’s water level dropped to 179.99 meters early Saturday morning. After 24 hours, it further dipped to 179.56 meters.
Edillon also said the government must take advantage of frequentrainfall and accelerate the completion of small impounding water projects to help ease effects of El Niño.
The state weather bureau on July 4 announced the start of a “weak” El Niño on the Pacific Ocean. The weather bureau warned that the phenomenon could cause dry spells and droughts in the country in the last quarter of 2023 and the first half of 2024.
National Statistician Dennis Mapa said during a briefing on inflation that if the agriculture sector suffers from El Niño, it would definitely affect prices.
In May, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the El Niño this year will “not deeply” hurt the Philippine economy as agriculture only accounts for “roughly 10 percent of the national income.”
