“45 days is all that is left to make this a close fight.”
Bongbong Marcos is the son and namesake of Ferdinand Marcos who we know was a dictator. After many decades, many Filipinos have come to believe that the Marcos years was a golden era for the country, thanks to decades of peddling lies, deception, and misinformation that has distorted real facts to paint a more favorable image of one of the darkest periods in Philippine history. Now BBM is the leading candidate for president, achieved by successfully uniting Marcos loyalists with Duterte supporters into one formidable coalition.
Leni Robredo is best positioned to overtake Marcos in this race. Alienated and maligned by the Duterte administration, Robredo has proven time and again that she can rise above persecution and petty politics. With no budgetary support from the Duterte government, she was able to make the Office of the Vice President relevant especially during the pandemic. Without a substantial campaign chest to fuel a presidential campaign, she relies on donations and volunteerism. Her credibility is such that her candidacy has inspired a movement, one that will try to carry her to Malacanang, no matter how constrained and difficult the fight may be.
Isko Moreno is a young and dynamic leader. As mayor of Manila, the country’s premier city, Moreno has shown that he can be a transformative leader, an action man. But perhaps because of his youth and lack of experience as a national leader, he is, rightly or wrongly, perceived as too raw for the presidency. Be that as it may, his charisma as a celebrity, as a no-nonsense local executive, and as a matinee idol are things going for him. He is seen by survey respondents as the second best choice should their original presidential candidate become unavailable to run. Moreno may still be the biggest beneficiary should BBM were to be disqualified by the Comelec or the courts for that matter.
Ping Lacson was a police chief and a longtime politician having served as senator of the Republic for many terms. Despite his extensive experience in government, he registers low numbers in presidential surveys even as he has performed best – the one with the most gravitas – in the presidential interviews and forums so far.
Manny Pacquiao, a champion boxer, anchors his campaign on his celebrity status. With his rags-to-riches narrative, Pacquiao portrays himself as champion of the poor and downtrodden. He is certainly sincere and as a fellow Mindanawon, I like him. He hopes that his popularity will translate into votes and catapult him to the presidency, but his campaign has not caught fire.
Ka Leody De Guzman, a labor leader, pales in comparison to the other candidates in terms of name recall, political machinery, campaign funds and even political experience. But he has the best vision and platform among the candidates, much superior to anyone else. A longtime labor leader, he never held an elective post before. Despite the shortcomings of his presidential run, Ka Leody offers a cause oriented and advocacy based governance as alternative to elitist, patronage based leadership that is the hallmark of our politics.
As of today, my choices are down to VP Leni, Ka Leody, and Senator Lacson (although his sponsorship of the Anti Terror Law and other human rights concerns still concerns me).
I repeat my mantra in the election talks I have been giving every day:
One, the other candidates can only catch up if they offer an alternative not just to Marcos but to the economic and political system that resulted in this moment where Marcos has become the change agent and the man to beat. Neoliberalism, political dynasties, and social inequality must be totally rejected by such candidates. They cannot promise to just be better administrators of a totally rotten – bulok – system.
Two, candidates must make a specific pitch to the young voter. So far, no candidate is doing that. The youth vote is for sure a plurality, if not a majority of voters, but surprisingly none of the candidates are targeting them. Miriam Defensor Santiago successfully did that in 1992 and nearly won because of that appeal. Climate change and educational reforms should anchor that pitch.
Three, Metro Manila is right now solidly in Marcos camp. But it should be doable to move that vote, certainly reduce the margin, but specific pitches to MM voters must be made. Transportation, health, and housing issues are the best bets for what would engage Metro Manilans most.
Fourth, converting Duterte and even Marcos voters has to be done. But that means you respect those voters, listen to them, engage and not judge, persuade and not condescend. Right now, many are doing the opposite and are just antagonizing the voters that they want to convert.
Finally, we do not have three months left in the campaign even if the election is in May. If this is not turned around significantly by the end of March, Marcos will be gliding to victory after Holy Week and in the last month of the campaign. So 45 days is all that is left to make this a close fight.
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