THE rise of China both as economic and military power may lead to a new regional order in Asia, but it is not enough to dethrone the United States as a dominant power in the region in the near future, according to a Japanese expert.
Speaking during a symposium commemorating the 41st founding anniversary of Fukuda “Heart-To-Heart” Doctrine in Manila, professor Dr. Mie Oba of the Tokyo University of Science sounded the alarm bells on the challenges to peace and prosperity in the Southeast Asia, particularly the shift in the balance of power in the region.
Oba said one of the challenges facing the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Japan was the “seismic shift in the balance of power” with the rise of China as dominant power in the region.
“The rise of China has had big impact on regional circumstances,” Oba said, noting that “this country first achieved large-scale economic development and now, it is mobilizing that expanding power to promote the further build up and modernization of its military.”
More importantly, she added, China was pursuing a two-pronged, pro-active foreign policy by asserting its sovereignty in regions such as the South China Sea and the East China Sea, then by demonstrating a regional vision as found in its Belt and Road Initiative.
“This kind of idea and the leadership it promotes could lead to the construction of a new regional order in Asia,” she said.
While the leverage of the US is declining, Oba said she did not believe “there will be an easy transition of power from the United to China in the near future.
She cited the US continuing efforts to keep its commitment to Asia affairs alive by launching its Indo-Pacific Strategy to support infrastructure development and financial assistance for security cooperation.
“With tactics such as these, I do not think that the United States is working to hold onto its hegemonic power in Asia and the world. However, the current administration’s “America First” policy has obviously had a negative effect on Asian countries’ trust towards the United States,” she said, adding that “from a long term perspective, its hegemonic power is on the decline relative to the rapid rise of China.”
However, Oba warned the changes in the balance of power and the decline of the international liberal order “have shaken the solidarity and resilience of Asean.
“The weakness of Asean will lead to the collapse of its centrality, which will have a strongly negative impact on peace and prosperity in East Asia and the Asia Pacific. So, Asean-Japan cooperation should aim at the enhancement of Asean solidarity, resilience and integration,” she said.