Most private sector economists expect inflation to remain manageable over the next three years on expected global economic recovery, results of the latest survey conducted by Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas show.
The mean inflation forecast for 2017 declined to 3.1 percent in September 2017 from 3.3 percent in June 2017 survey. Mean inflation forecast for 2019 also declined to 3.4 percent in September 2017 from 3.5 percent in June 2017.
“Meanwhile, average inflation forecast for 2018 was unchanged at 3.4 percent during the same review period,” Bangko Sentral said.
“Most analysts expect full year 2017 inflation to remain close to the midpoint of the government’s target range of 2 to 4 percent amid relatively balanced risks to inflation,” it said.
Analysts, however, noted possible upside risks to inflation such as volatile global oil prices, weaker peso, initial implementation of the comprehensive tax reform program, government spending on infrastructure, rise in utility rates, robust consumer spending during the holiday season and base effect.
A key downside risk to inflation was seen to emanate from global economic recovery.