Global stocks fell while gold and the yen halted three days of gains as investors grew cautious before speeches this week from Donald Trump and Janet Yellen. The British pound slumped while oil climbed.
European stocks fluctuated while banks and exporters dragged equities lower in Tokyo. The yen and gold retreated after trading near the highest levels in three months. Treasury yields rose after falling last week by the most since July.
The British pound dropped against all its major peers on a report it’s possible a Scottish independence referendum could be called in March. Oil extended gains above $54 a barrel and iron ore rallied after last week’s declines.
The rally in global equities that helped push their value above $70 trillion is losing momentum as money managers grapple with political uncertainty and the Federal Reserve’s schedule for lifting borrowing costs.
Investors will be hoping for details on Trump’s spending plans as lingering concern about the timing of US fiscal stimulus weighed on the dollar this year, testing its post-election surge. Markets from stocks to currencies have been subject to daily fluctuations as investors hang on each word from central bank officials and politicians.
“We are not sure what Trump’s policies are going to be and whether he’s going to implement them at all,” Kumar Palghat, a portfolio manager at Kapstream Capital, told Bloomberg TV in Sydney Monday. We should get some detail from Trump’s speech Tuesday, he said.
European politics also pose risks for the markets, as investors continue to watch developments on French presidential elections and the UK’s Brexit plans. The British pound slumped after the Times of London reported that UK Prime Minister Theresa May is preparing for Scotland to potentially call for an independence referendum in March.
In Trump’s address before a joint session of Congress on Feb. 28, the president is expected to lay out his plans for tax and health-care reform and infrastructure spending. Investors will also be watching comments from Fed officials, including Yellen, who speaks at an event in Chicago at the end of the week. The UK government is setting aside time for a Parliamentary battle to overturn changes May fears could be made to her draft Brexit law when it’s debated in the House of Lords this week.
This week’s economic data include US personal income and spending. India and Australia will report on fourth-quarter GDP. China’s PMI data are expected to show continued expansion. Japan reports on factory output, housing starts and capital spending. Macau’s gambling rebound probably accelerated this month, driven by Chinese high rollers. Numbers are due Wednesday.
The MSCI All-Country World Index slipped 0.1 percent at 8:23 a.m. in London, adding to Friday’s 0.3 percent loss after reaching a record earlier in the week. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was little changed, after dropping 0.9 percent over the previous three sessions. Japan’s Topix dropped 1 percent, retreating for a third day.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.2 percent, failing to hold a gain above 24,000, and the Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.8 percent. China’s economy remained generally steady during the Lunar New Year while sentiment readings show uncertainties over the outlook, according to the earliest private data for February. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.2 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at another record on Friday, gaining for an 11th day.
