President Rodrigo Duterte’s leadership skills and commitment to social change will be put to test in the next few days and weeks. Will he stand by the courageous and visionary leadership of Environment Secretary Gina Lopez who has made decisions on mining that has, overnight, transformed the governance of that sector? Will he decide to put the brakes on a slide back to war and allow his peace negotiators to meet this week in Amsterdam, Netherlands to deliberate and hopefully finalize a bilateral ceasefire agreement? Will the President fully support the Bangsamoro Transition Commission as it begins its work to draft a new version of the Bangsamoro Basic Law?
It’s interesting that seven months to his term and with the coming of the Holy Week and Easter break of Congress, leaving only a few more weeks of legislative work left before Duterte’s second State of the Nation Address, there has not been a single new big law, other than the budget, that Congress has enacted under this administration. Unfortunately, so much time is being wasted by the House of Representatives on bad and useless bills like the death penalty and the lowering of criminal liability. Both have zero chance of passage in the Senate. In the meantime, the tax reforms, transportation, and FOI bills are progressing slowly. For tax reforms and FOI, the ball is in the court of Congress. For transportation, it’s the executive department that is not doing its part from what I gather. Both chambers of Congress, with Senate and House committees led by Senator Grace Poe and Representative Cesar Sarmiento respectively, have done excellent work on the bills for emergency powers on transportation.
There is unfortunately a lot of backsliding in the corruption area. While you have bright lights like Martin Delgra who is doing a yeoman’s job cleaning up the Land Transportation Franchising and Regulatory Board, stories from many government agencies at how corruption is rearing its ugly head in so many places abound. The Bureau of Immigration bribery case is the most visible but there are other similar incidents elsewhere in the bureaucracy. The impunity of the Camp Crame killing of a Korean businessman did not help. And now we see the ground being prepared for dismissing the PDAF cases with the legal position of the Solicitor General on the Napoles illegal detention case.
The biggest diversion from genuine change is the war against illegal drugs which has resulted in the massacre of the poor. It has diverted resources and attracted domestic and global criticism, including, possibly, a case against Duterte, Bato, and others in the International Criminal Court. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is understandably worried about being dragged into this unwinnable war as its officers too can be sued later in the ICC. And it is doomed to failure because the strategy being followed has long been discredited and its implementation is led by institutions—the PNP, NBI, DOJ, and now PDEA—that have a history of corruption and complicity in criminal activities.
The persecution of Senator Leila de Lima is also wrong. I am certain she will eventually be cleared. Granting convicted drug lords immunity in exchange for testifying against De Lima also creates a bad precedent.
More positively, there is real change in the social development and social justice sectors. From the basic sectors and local governments, I hear only good feedback of the work that Secretaries Jun Evasco, Manny Piñol, Judy Taguiwalo, and Paeng Mariano are doing. Likewise, Liza Maza, Terry Ridon, and others like them are working hard making sure their offices deliver to their constituencies among the basic sectors. Their efforts are not noticed by traditional and social media because they are not controversial even as they are making an impact on the lives of the poor.
But it is in the environmental sector and potentially in the peace process with both Moro revolutionary organizations and the National Democratic Front of the Philippines (which includes the Communist Party of the Philippines and the New People’s Army) where the greatest potential good social change can come. For immediate impact, the decisions that Gina Lopez makes promise to be the most dramatic. For lasting reforms, success in achieving and implementing permanent peace settlements with the Moros and the communists will go a long way to change the country.
Unfortunately, the detractors of Lopez have become personal and have launched propaganda attacks against her, distorting things from her past to put her in a negative light. There is also misinformation about the impact of her mining decisions, with the President himself misled into saying that we would lose P70 billion because of this. As Dr. Cielo Magno, a UP economics professor and an expert on mining economics, has computed, it’s more like P10 billion.
There are of course serious issues around the decisions of Secretary Lopez that the President must resolve. On this, I align myself with Finance Undersecretary Bayani Agabin who has said that these decisions must be weighed according to the standards of substantive and procedural due process.
As for the peace processes, I am optimistic about the Mindanao talks now that the BTC is about to be launched, but there is uncertainty on the fate of the NDFP negotiations. Negotiators on both sides are supposed to meet this week to discuss and hopefully agree on a bilateral ceasefire. In my view, such a ceasefire is essential for the process to succeed. Yes, the negotiations can go on even when there is fighting but trust will not be built. Unfortunately, as historian Vince Rafael has pointed, the fight between the AFP and the NPA has taken on dimensions of a “rido,” a family feud, as we see in Mindanao, that is difficult to stop once it begins. Definitely, a good step forward as well would be for the President to release the 400-plus political prisoners affiliated with the NDFP. This is a matter of justice and not necessarily a quid pro quo or in exchange for the ceasefire. In any case, agreement on the ceasefire should not be contingent on the release.
Still on the NDFP peace process, I would also propose to the negotiators that they accelerate the timetable of the talks. I have studied the texts of both sides on the Comprehensive Agreement on Social and Economic Reforms (CASER), and my expert opinion, as a negotiations professor, scholar, and practitioner, is that the positions between the government and the NDFP are not far apart. Mostly, it’s a difference language and that is not a formidable obstacle. I believe a CASER agreement can be completed in a couple of months.
In relation to the political detainees, maybe the government can release first, upon signing of the bilateral ceasefire, those prisoners who are over 60 years old, those who are sick, and young mothers. After the CASER is adopted, the rest of the political prisoners could then be released. A full amnesty for all involved in this 49-year-old conflict should wait the final political settlement.
All eyes are on the President. I hope he makes the right decisions on mining and peace.
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