The euro struggled in Asia Wednesday on increasing uncertainty about France’s political outlook and fears of another debt crisis brewing in Greece.
Most major equities markets reversed early losses to push higher but confidence remains shaky over worries about Donald Trump and uncertainty about his impact on the global economy.
Wall Street continues to touch record highs on hopes Trump will enact business-friendly measures. But Asian dealers are less sanguine following a series of outbursts that have included warnings of protectionism and depictions of Japan and China as trade cheats.
Against that background, traders are growing increasingly concerned about rising populism across the world—particularly following Trump and Brexit—with far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen echoing many of the tycoon’s themes.
There are also elections in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands this year, with similar issues in those countries fueling fears the European Union could break up.
The euro sank Tuesday to $1.0656, from highs above $1.08 at the start of the week. It edged up slightly in Asia but was still under pressure.
“While it is premature to draw any definitive conclusion, the political landscapes in both France and Italy are coming under immense scrutiny from investors, which should keep euro upticks limited,” said Stephen Innes, senior trader at OANDA.
“If we factor in a possibly divisive German election, risks are rising immensely on the European political stage.”
Greece’s debt saga also reared its head after the International Monetary Fund warned the country would likely not reach targets prescribed for it to qualify for bailout cash.
While Athens dismissed the report, the comments sent Greece’s cost of borrowing soaring on bond markets and raised the specter of another crisis for the EU to juggle.
In Asia, Tokyo ended a volatile day 0.5 percent higher as early gains in the yen abated, boosting Japan’s exporters.
Hong Kong ended 0.7 percent higher and Shanghai closed up 0.4 percent.
Both markets recovered from morning losses triggered by news that China’s foreign exchange reserves fell below $3 trillion in January for the first time in six years as it battled to support the yuan in the face of huge capital outflows.
Analysts said that while the breach was not a big issue, the downward trend was a worry.
“In the current context of President Trump threatening to declare China a currency manipulator, and his clear desire for a weaker US dollar, China’s reserves management and how that interplays with the (dollar-yuan) rate could be another flashpoint between the world’s two biggest economies,” said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at FX and CFD provider AxiTrader.
Oil prices extended losses after a reading showing US stockpiles soared last week, leading to worries a government report later Wednesday will also point to an increase.
However, the commodity pared initial drops after Qatar’s energy minister, the current Opec president, said world oil markets were “responding positively” to output cuts implemented by the cartel and some non-cartel producers this year.
