One of the most important issues that President Aquino is leaving to the next President is the problem in the South China Sea. Contrary to the claims of his administration that he is ending his term with a country overflowing with milk and honey, he is actually turning over to his successor a nation beset by problems and challenges.
Our country has consistently refused China’s invitation for bilateral talks without any preconditions, pursuing instead our case at the Hague with vigor. But right now, as United States Navy Admiral Harry Harris, the Commander in Chief of US Pacific Forces, said, China virtually has operational control over the whole of South China Sea.
China has installed high-frequency radar in the Paracels, together with anti-missile batteries and fighter jets. Although the Paracels are in the northern part of the South China Sea and is nearer Vietnam than the Philippines, nevertheless, the installation of these various military equipment have completely altered the equation in the area. This being the case, should the next president make a sudden U-turn and agree to bilateral talks with China?
We have to remember that China has many times reaffirmed its inviolable sovereignty over the whole of China Sea because of some dubious ancient documents that has no basis in current international law. Furthermore, for such talks to be fruitful, there has to be trust and so far, with what China has been doing unilaterally, it is hard to trust China’s words.
Admittedly, the dispute is complex and there are no easy answers. Even among our current leaders, there is no unanimity of approach and this is the big challenge that awaits the next president. He and his team and hopefully together with the collective wisdom of our national leaders must come up with a stand that the country can defend regardless of cost.
This administration has been steadfast in its single-minded approach and has concentrated its efforts to enhancing our alliance with our old colonial master, the United States, by signing the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement which has not been universally accepted by all sectors of our society. We have also signed an agreement with Australia and Japan. In spite of our efforts to procure new military equipment, it would appear that our poor country is destined to be the dumping ground of old surplus military equipment from the United States and now Japan. But Japan at least, will be turning over 10 brand new coast guard patrol boats which we will be paying under generous concessional terms. Except for two of our presidential candidates who have discussed parts of the dispute, the other three up to now have not discussed in detail their stand on the conflict or what they intend to do.
Davao City Mayor Rodrigo Duterte was reported to have said that he is not in favor of Edca but will not abrogate it. He also mentioned that he does not believe that the United States would go to war with China for us. He advocates instead that we develop our own capability so we can defend our sovereignty with honor.
Senator Miriam Santiago, on the other hand, has come out openly against Edca because she believes it is constitutionally infirm. She has not said whether she is against our alliance with the US.
Meanwhile, Vice President Jejomar Binay, former secretary Manuel Roxas II and Senator Grace Poe have not issued specific statements where they stand on the issue.
Since this problem is so important, all the candidates must state categorically where they stand. Yes, there are other issues in foreign relations but the South China Sea dispute has become an existential problem to us as a country. For the first time, our insularity as an island nation separated by 600 miles from the Asian mainland is no longer there. Planes can now be in our territory in less than 10 minutes yet the vast majority of our citizenry seem unmindful of what the current tensions in the South China Sea mean to our well-being as a nation.
Only the fishermen who are prevented by the Chinese from fishing are concerned and only because it directly affects their livelihood.
For the rest of us, it is business as usual. We have even allowed Foton, the Chinese vehicle manufacturing company, to locate right in Clark where one of our bigger Air Force bases is located. The place is also reported to be one of the military bases being offered to the US. Are we even thinking right in this? Just yesterday, China was reported to have taken another atoll near Palawan called Quirino or Jackson Atoll. This is an area between the Philippine occupied Lamak Island and the Chinese occupied Panganiban reef. Chinese naval and coast guard ships are in the area preventing Filipino fishermen from fishing. We of course are completely unable to prevent it. It seems clear that China is ramping up its pressure on us and even accused us of political provocation for filing a case in the Hague contesting China’s claim. China would want us to keep our mouth shut and simply accept what it is saying and doing. Because of its size, China can perhaps afford to ignore the Hague decision or other international pressures. China believes what Mao once said that power comes out of the barrel of a gun. But what it forgets is that if it wants to be a respected leader in the region, China must show that it does deserve to be a leader and earn the respect of its neighbor.
