Exports are expected to rebound 7 percent in 2016, after dropping in 2015, Singapore-based DBS bank said Wednesday.
“At this juncture, we expect export growth to rebound to about 7 percent in 2016, pretty decent given the projected 6-percent fall last year,” the bank said.
It said the outlook might have an impact on Bangko Sentral’s policy stance this year.
DBS said with the export growth projection, Bangko Sentral might raise key policy rate by 25 basis point in 2016.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that merchandise exports fell 5.8 percent in the first 11 months of 2015 to $54 billion from $57.3 billion a year earlier.
Exports in November alone retreated 1.1 percent to $5.1 billion from a year ago, pulled down by the decreases in shipments of garments (-42.7 percent), chemicals (-40.2 percent) and woodcrafts and furniture (-9.5 percent).
Electronic exports, however, rose 9.3 percent to $2.774 billion in November 2015 from $2.539 billion recorded in the same month in 2014.
“Export growth of electronic products is currently trending at circa 8 percent annual pace, pretty strong when compared to the performance elsewhere in the region,” DBS said.
“Considering that global growth was also somewhat disappointing in 2015, the sustained growth in electronic exports is also an encouraging sign for the medium-term,” it said.
