The Department of Health (DOH) on Monday reported 1,657 new COVID-19 cases, bringing the total to 82,040 cases in the Philippines.
This developed as an expert from the University of the Philippines said on Monday the country could record up to 90,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of July and even reach up to 140,000 COVID-19 cases by the end of August.
Mathematics professor Guido David, a member of the UP OCTA Research group, said they had to adjust their earlier projection of 85,000 cases by end-July as the number of new COVID-19 patients continued to rise, particularly in the National Capital Region.
Hitting the 85,000 level would trigger the government to declare a modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ), one step higher than the current general community quarantine (GCQ) in Metro Manila and other areas.
The new cases reported Monday were based on the total test results done by 59 out of 90 current operational labs.
The DOH reported 16 new fatalities, bringing the total death toll from COVID-19 to 1,945.
Health officials also reported 359 recoveries, bringing the total number of patients who recovered from the disease to 26,446.
The DOH said there are 53,649 total active cases in the country, net of COVID-19 deaths and recoveries.
Sixty-five duplicates were removed from the total case count.
In an interview on ABS-CBN TeleRadyo, David said while Cebu has seen a decline in cases, Metro Manila and the Calabarzon region continued to see a spike in their cases.
David said the decision to return Cebu to an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) could explain the decrease in COVID-19 cases in their area.
A proposal to return to a modified ECQ could be a last resort, David noted, if local government measures to contain the virus spread fail. He warned that hospitals could be overwhelmed if the government fails to arrest the increase in COVID-19 cases.
Presidential Spokesman Harry Roque earlier said Metro Manila may revert to a much stricter MECQ lockdown if the number of confirmed virus infections rises to 85,000 by July 31.
Despite the rise in COVID-19 cases, the country’s case fatality rate (CFR) shows a decreasing trend, the DOH said.
Both numbers also indicate that the death rate might be reaching a point of stability. These findings, presented by epidemiologist Dr. DJ Darwin Bandoy on Monday’s Beat COVID-19 virtual press conference, present a more encouraging outlook of the Philippines’ fight against COVID-19.
Health OIC-Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said data analysis is an important part of a pandemic response. It is a weapon that will enable the government, private and public sectors to make informed decisions and be better prepared for any issues that may arise.
Bandoy’s data analysis presentation showed that the number of deaths is reaching equilibrium, while the Philippines’ CFR is steadily decreasing. He attributed the steady decrease in the CFR to increased testing capacity, compliance with the overall improved health system capacity, and improvement in treatment protocols.
At the same time, Bandoy said that as more cases are detected, the CFR can still continue to decline.
“Decrease in CFR is attributed to overall improvement in health care system particularly patient management. We can associate the stabilizing of the death rate to an improvement in the quality of health care,” he said in a mix of English and Filipino.
He said the health care system was now more familiar with the disease and was better equipped to treat patients.
In terms of patient management, Bandoy gave credit to frontliners and health care workers for the positive turn of events.
Although the CFR is generally going down, however, Visayas remains under close watch. Developments happening in the region are a reminder for constant vigilance, he said.
Bandoy also cautioned against sharing unvalidated information to avoid confusing the public.
In other developments:
* The DOH reported on Sunday that 505 more health workers contracted COVID-19 over the past week, raising the total to 4,443 as of July 25. In its daily COVID-19 report, the DOH said total recoveries among health workers increased to 3,456 after 265 more recovered from the respiratory disease. The death toll of health workers climbed to 36 with one new fatality. The other 951 medical workers are active cases undergoing treatment or quarantine. The department also said it was having difficulty trying hire more health workers as there are almost no applicants.
* A senior member of the House of Representatives on Monday urged the DOH to immediately release the hazard pay and special risk allowance of doctors, nurses and other health workers in public hospitals throughout the country. In Resolution 1055, Cagayan de Oro City Rep. Rufus Rodriguez said health workers in Northern Mindanao Medical Center in Cagayan de Oro, the designated COVID-19 referral hospital in Region 10, are among DOH and government hospital personnel who have not received their hazard and special risk incentives.
* Senator Francis Pangilinan urged the government to focus on managing the pandemic with a heal;th-centered approach of mass testing, contact tracing and treatment, and not with “incoherent, unreasonable and iron-fist policies.” Pangilinan said it has been four months since the declaration of emergency situation due to COVID but the problem has not been addressed. He said there is still lack in mass testing, contact tracing, and treatment and noted that lockdowns alone will not solve the problem.