AS NEVER before, the world today is on tenterhooks as the clock ticks closer to 23:44 Greenwich Mean Time Monday or 7:44 AM Philippine Standard Time Tuesday.
By Monday, as the clock was approaching the 48-hour ultimatum raised by US President Donald Trump for Iran to open the crucial Strait of Hormuz, stocks tumbled and oil prices rose, with echoes from Israel reverberating worldwide the Middle East war could last several more weeks after Feb. 28.
The Strait of Hormuz is vital to the global economy because it is the world’s most crucial oil chokepoint, with about 20 percent of global daily oil consumption and 20 percent of global Liquefied Natural Gas passing through it and roughly one-third of the world’s fertilizer trade pass through the strait.
Closure could trigger major energy shortages, sharply increase oil prices across nations, including the Philippines, and cause severe, lasting economic disruptions worldwide.
The Philippines itself relies heavily on the Strait of Hormuz for its energy needs, with approximately 25 percent of its oil imports directly passing through this crucial bottleneck, and nearly 98 percent of the country’s crude oil imports originate from the Middle East, making its energy supply highly vulnerable to closures in this region.
The 126-km-long waterway is the only seaborne route for Gulf oil producers – including Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, and Kuwait – to reach open markets.
Due to its narrowness – maritime authorities say the shipping lanes are narrow enough for Iran to dominate – it serves as a critical pressure point where geopolitical tensions directly affect global energy prices.
While some countries, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have pipelines to bypass the strait, there is limited capacity – only a fraction of the daily volume passing through the waterway.
Now, President Trump threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants, starting with its largest one, if the narrow Hormuz is not reopened within 48 hours – nearly two hours after sunrise today in the Philippines.
But Iran’s military said it will retaliate by striking US infrastructure in the region, according to state media, updating an earlier Iran military warning the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely closed” if the US were to deliver on Trump’s threats.
With the conflict now in its fourth week and showing no sign of ending, the head of the International Energy Agency, Dr. Fatih Birol, a Turkish economist and energy expert, warned of the worst global energy crisis in decades and said the world economy was under “major threat” from the crisis.
Meanwhile, observers have also raised the prospect of a surge in inflation that could force central banks to hike interest rates, while the choking off of fertilizer shipments has also fanned concerns about global food security.
The world is rubbing its eyes in this moment of collective psychological fatigue.
