“Would reliance on the US of A as treaty alliy prove to be foolhardy?“
IT SUDDENLY dawned on me that I am writing about Taiwan for my Aug. 21 column, 42 years to the day when a China Airlines flight from Taipei brought passenger “Marcial Bonifacio” to the Manila International Airport.
Decades later when I was appointed to be our de facto envoy to Taiwan, I learned from an unimpeachable source that then Asian Exchange Center’s (the forerunner of today’s MECO), Ambassador Narciso Ramos, father of the Philippine Constabulary chief who would later be president, called on Ninoy Aquino at the Grand Hotel and tried to dissuade him from coming back to our country, fearful for his personal safety.
Ninoy, however, had made up his mind. On Aug. 21, 1983, he was accosted by soldiers inside the CI 811 flight from Taipei, led through the side stairs and killed in the tarmac. This was a turning point in our history. It led to the downfall of Ferdinand Marcos Sr. 919 days after, through a “people power” revolt.
Till this day, however, who shot Ninoy and who masterminded the treacherous act remains a mystery, even if his widow and his son became presidents.
Taiwan is back in the news these days after Pres. Marcos Jr., responding to a question by a well-known lady journalist in India, said the Philippines would inexorably be drawn to the war if China “invades” Taiwan, which it considers a renegade province to be re-unified with the mainland, “by force if necessary.”
China News Agency asked me to comment on the president’s statement which was followed as expected by a terse reaction from the spokesperson of the PRC Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
The CNA reporter told me he was unable to get a reaction from the current chairperson and resident representative of MECO, which was understandable considering the delicate balance between Philippine-China relations, most especially over Taiwan matters.
In very diplomatic language, I said that our president must have had in mind the fact that we have 180,000 Filipinos residing in Taiwan, most of whom are workers in the island’s ever-busy factories and shops.
Like all countries in the world save for 11, we subscribe to the One-China policy such that we do not have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan, although we maintain an office that promotes economic and cultural relations on a people-to-people basis.
Taiwan is our 8th largest trading partner, although we import more goods than we export, the trade deficit made up by their hosting our contract workers who in turn send money to their relatives here.
If hostilities erupt between the PLA and Taiwan’s defense forces, the obvious immediate target of the PLA would be airports and seaports, many of which serve double purposes, commercial and military.
And since we have no land borders such as those in the Middle East where our nationals could reach friendly countries, repatriation would be a nightmare.
Although Laoag or Cagayan are only about 400 kilometers from Kaohsiung, a 40-minute plane ride and a half-day boat ride away, evacuating our citizens across the Bashi Channel and our Luzon Straits would be well-nigh risky and improbable.
We can only hope the hostilities end in short time, during which MECO’s responsibility would be to ensure that our citizens are safely evacuated and cared for in bomb shelters.
To the credit of the Taiwan government, they have assured us all people regardless of nationality would be safe inside their many prepared shelters.
MECO in the previous administration had a contingency plan and reserve funds for that, but, in a protracted conflict, the problem would be most difficult.
Then again, our president’s expansion of the scope of EDCA, where we agreed to military bases and facilities to be utilized by the US military, including three in Cagayan and Isabela provinces, not to mention Palawan and Cebu, has doubtless drawn us into the conflict.
China is no fool to believe these facilities are purely for disaster response and military training. They know that these will be supply bases for the anti-China allies led by the US of A who might resist a mainland take-over of Taiwan.
And in a shooting war, where both sides will do everything to win, the problem would not be confined to ensuring the safety of our OFWs. Parts of our country could be magnets for hostile attack.
Does the president as chief architect of our foreign policy, realize the grave implications of his words and actions? And would reliance on the US of A as treaty alliy prove to be foolhardy?
