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Wednesday, June 19, 2024

Politics 2025

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“How will politics 2025 play out? And how will the politico-socio-economic situation between now and May next year impact politics 2025?”

FOR good measure, the cha-cha initiatives, in whatever manner, are now in the chiller.

Not necessarily in deep freeze for the rest of this administration, just in the chiller, like the good steaks our leaders prefer.

Cha-cha’s fate will depend on the 2025 election results, particularly of the 12 senators we will elect, re-elect or return to the chamber of the once august.

That is how important the 2025 mid-terms are: the resurrection of cha-cha and the positioning for 2028, when once again our voters choose their president who, by defined and traditional powers, the determinant of the near future with lingering effects on the next generation.

The president, during the oath-taking of a few members of the “thawed” Partido Federal, the party by default of candidate Marcos Jr. in 2022, said “we will make our alliances with…Lakas, NPC, NP, and NUP.”

Clearly these alliances will have to do with the administration senatorial line-up, while equity of the incumbent will prevail in the HoR, which means the “allied” party members need not switch to either Lakas or PFP to be the “official” candidates.

A “steering committee” will iron out the local rivalries. A former DoTr Usec now presidential assistant has been tapped to manage the senatorial campaign in behalf of the “titular” campaign manager.

Expectedly, Speaker Romualdez, who heads Lakas, welcomed the “alliance,” and an NP stalwart, Rep. Ace Barbers, enthused about the continuation of “unity,” even if neither PDP nor Hugpong of the Duterte political forces were mentioned in the forging of “Uniteam” Phase Two.

From Lakas, mentioned to aspire to the ranks of the once-august chamber are the Speaker’s wife, Rep. Yedda Mendoza Romualdez, incumbent senator Bong Revilla, and (pardon me if I do not know to which party these aspirants now belong) Richard Gomez of Ormoc, Erwin Tulfo of Davao, Rufus Rodriguez of Cagayan de Oro, Ben-hur Abalos of Mandaluyong, and Gilbert Teodoro of Tarlac.

From the NPC, there is former Senate President Tito Sotto, incumbent Lito Lapid, and boxing legend and 2022 presidential aspirant Manny Pacquiao.

From the Nacionalista Party, there are incumbents Imee Marcos and Pia Cayetano, plus Cynthia Villar’s daughter, Las Pinas representative Camille Villar, and Medal of Valor awardee Col. Ariel Querubin.

I have no confirmation if NUP president L-Ray Villafuerte of Bicolandia will join the fray for the once-august chamber. Another Bicolano stalwart is whispered to be a candidate for an important Cabinet position after May 2025.

I had lunch with two “independent” former senators recently, and when the conversation turned to 2025, one cryptically remarked: “What’s the use of elections when precinct votes show identical results, as in several precincts of Manila?”

He was clearly referring to the 2022 “Smartmatic-ized” results, as written about by the very diligent Jarius Bondoc of Philstar, based on findings of the group of Eliseo Rio, Gus Lagman and Leonardo Odonio.

Will next year’s senatorial results likewise be “Miru-maticized?”

That is bad news for incumbents Imee Marcos and Pia Cayetano, more of the former, who could be “junked” by the HoR members because of her “caustic” tongue. The latter is elder sister to Sen. Alan, bete noire of then VP candidate Marcos Jr. in 2016.

Who then will be the opposition candidates?

Tres Derecho from the yellow-pinks? Kiko Pangilinan, Bam Aquino and Chel Diokno, who Leila de Lima announced as their senatorial candidates, while she shall run as party-list representative, and Leni Robredo as Naga City mayor?

PDP’s Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, Francis Tolenntino, incumbent re-electionists all, plus supposedly actor Philip Salvador?

What about Aksyon Demokratiko’s 2022 candidates for the top posts, Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso and Doc Willy Ong, who are both figuring well in the recent surveys?

If they will run for the once-august chamber, which side would they fit in?

And independents Ping Lacson, Gringo Honasan who are mentioned as come-backing?

Can these well-known personalities be forged into another “alliance?”

That does not seem likely, unless former president Digong can play “match-maker,” or VP Inday Sara, or even incumbent Raffy Tulfo whose early numbers in the survey game have reached Sara-level heights?

A bit of post-Marcos Sr. history: In all mid-term senatorial elections, administration candidates prevail, with the singular exception of 2007, when the Genuine Opposition candidates trounced PGMA’s chosen “alliance” candidates by a 10-2 result.

Only Sonny Angara and Migs Zubiri, both “graduating” next year, survived the GO blitzkrieg then, the latter with “a little help” from the Ampatuans of Maguindanao.

How will politics 2025 play out? And how will the politico-socio-economic situation between now and May next year impact politics 2025?

Ask Nostradamus, and this time, no “Tallano gold” and no return of the “golden years,” please. Bumenta na ‘yan.


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